Raff's Dilemma
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 70 (17 on the archive and 53 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 28
Defender wins (German): 41
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1022 | 1021 | 50% | 2024-10-03 | Won |
| 1184 | 1028 | 71% | 2024-07-02 | Won |
| 826 | 1156 | 13% | 2024-03-23 | Lost |
| 850 | 1010 | 28% | 2023-11-03 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1106 | 66% | 2023-03-30 | Won |
| 1011 | 928 | 62% | 2021-07-01 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-11-22 | Lost |
| 953 | 1037 | 38% | 2019-06-15 | Won |
| 918 | 926 | 49% | 2019-01-01 | Won |
| 713 | 1152 | 7% | 2018-07-12 | Lost |
| 971 | 741 | 79% | 2018-03-03 | Lost |
| 983 | 1158 | 27% | 2018-02-25 | Lost |
| 1065 | 741 | 87% | 2010-11-19 | Won |
| 1046 | 1228 | 26% | 2009-03-09 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1011 | 59% | 2009-01-06 | Won |
| 998 | 1145 | 30% | 2008-08-12 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1125 | 54% | 2008-08-10 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1004.3 vs 1035.4 has a 45.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).