Raff's Dilemma
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (19 on the archive and 54 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 29
Defender wins (German): 43
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 986 | 1263 | 17% | 2025-01-16 | | Lost |
| 987 | 1052 | 41% | 2024-10-03 | A | Won |
| 1263 | 1078 | 74% | 2024-07-02 | | Won |
| 808 | 1156 | 12% | 2024-03-23 | | Lost |
| 850 | 1000 | 30% | 2023-11-03 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1120 | 78% | 2023-03-30 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1120 | 78% | 2023-03-30 | | Won |
| 965 | 1000 | 45% | 2021-07-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2020-11-22 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2019-06-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 930 | 60% | 2019-01-01 | | Won |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2018-07-12 | | Lost |
| 971 | 1000 | 46% | 2018-03-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2018-02-25 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2010-11-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2009-03-09 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 1015 | 71% | 2009-01-06 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1192 | 28% | 2008-08-12 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2008-08-10 | | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1037.5 vs 1081.4 has a 43.71% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).