Raff's Dilemma
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 70 (17 on the archive and 53 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 28
Defender wins (German): 41
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1047 | 996 | 57% | 2024-10-03 | Won |
| 1185 | 1010 | 73% | 2024-07-02 | Won |
| 828 | 1196 | 11% | 2024-03-23 | Lost |
| 850 | 1009 | 29% | 2023-11-03 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1122 | 64% | 2023-03-30 | Won |
| 972 | 928 | 56% | 2021-07-01 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-11-22 | Lost |
| 954 | 1037 | 38% | 2019-06-15 | Won |
| 922 | 930 | 49% | 2019-01-01 | Won |
| 739 | 1151 | 9% | 2018-07-12 | Lost |
| 971 | 1075 | 35% | 2018-03-03 | Lost |
| 983 | 1158 | 27% | 2018-02-25 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1075 | 54% | 2010-11-19 | Won |
| 1046 | 1228 | 26% | 2009-03-09 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1021 | 59% | 2009-01-06 | Won |
| 1037 | 1206 | 27% | 2008-08-12 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1125 | 54% | 2008-08-10 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1010.3 vs 1079.7 has a 40.14% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).