Raff's Dilemma
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (19 on the archive and 53 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 29
Defender wins (German): 42
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 977 | 1263 | 16% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 979 | 1065 | 38% | 2024-10-03 | Won |
| 1263 | 1003 | 82% | 2024-07-02 | Won |
| 824 | 1189 | 11% | 2024-03-23 | Lost |
| 850 | 1009 | 29% | 2023-11-03 | Lost |
| 1343 | 1120 | 78% | 2023-03-30 | Won |
| 1343 | 1120 | 78% | 2023-03-30 | Won |
| 968 | 927 | 56% | 2021-07-01 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-11-22 | Lost |
| 947 | 1037 | 37% | 2019-06-15 | Won |
| 922 | 930 | 49% | 2019-01-01 | Won |
| 753 | 1141 | 10% | 2018-07-12 | Lost |
| 971 | 1099 | 32% | 2018-03-03 | Lost |
| 938 | 1158 | 22% | 2018-02-25 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1099 | 55% | 2010-11-19 | Won |
| 1046 | 1233 | 25% | 2009-03-09 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1015 | 60% | 2009-01-06 | Won |
| 1062 | 1172 | 35% | 2008-08-12 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1132 | 51% | 2008-08-10 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1033.4 vs 1094.7 has a 41.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).