Sting of the Italian Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (Canadian): 6
Defender wins (Italian): 15
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 905 | 872 | 55% | 2024-10-14 | Won |
| 1029 | 1116 | 38% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 955 | 1049 | 37% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 977 | 1008 | 46% | 2019-09-15 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1223 | 27% | 2018-12-07 | Lost |
| 932 | 1219 | 16% | 2018-03-12 | Lost |
| 973 | 1061 | 38% | 2017-09-03 | Won |
| 1062 | 982 | 61% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1100 | 40% | 2016-04-19 | Lost |
| 1316 | 1323 | 49% | 2013-06-13 | Won |
| 1316 | 1159 | 71% | 2013-04-12 | Won |
| 1066 | 1080 | 48% | 2013-03-12 | Won |
| 1133 | 1147 | 48% | 2011-10-08 | Won |
| 1058 | 1167 | 35% | 2010-12-15 | Lost |
| 917 | 1316 | 9% | 2009-09-11 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1010 | 67% | 2009-02-03 | Lost |
| 982 | 1029 | 43% | 2009-01-25 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1014 | 50% | 2008-10-11 | Lost |
| 949 | 1110 | 28% | 2008-10-10 | Lost |
| 1147 | 1012 | 69% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1049 vs 1099.3 has a 42.82% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).