Battle for the Warta Line
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 81 (30 on the archive and 51 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 38
Defender wins (Polish): 41
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 1
Defender wins (Polish): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1026 | 1001 | 54% | 2024-06-23 | Lost |
| 1018 | 875 | 69% | 2024-06-19 | Won |
| 1159 | 1129 | 54% | 2024-06-08 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1042 | 47% | 2024-06-01 | Won |
| 979 | 1046 | 40% | 2023-08-19 | Lost |
| 956 | 903 | 58% | 2023-02-02 | Lost |
| 943 | 979 | 45% | 2022-12-22 | Won |
| 903 | 956 | 42% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1248 | 39% | 2022-03-23 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1127 | 47% | 2021-04-27 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1023 | 47% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1023 | 47% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1010 | 52% | 2020-04-25 | Lost |
| 938 | 979 | 44% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 1219 | 1248 | 46% | 2017-12-12 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1154 | 59% | 2017-12-12 | Lost |
| 869 | 1219 | 12% | 2017-10-09 | Won |
| 869 | 1219 | 12% | 2017-10-09 | Won |
| 913 | 1066 | 29% | 2015-04-25 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1145 | 43% | 2014-12-07 | Won |
| 1056 | 1060 | 49% | 2013-10-14 | Won |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2013-09-28 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1056 | 51% | 2013-09-28 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1111 | 53% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 1001 | 1014 | 48% | 2011-02-06 | Won |
| 1058 | 1004 | 58% | 2009-12-05 | Won |
| 1021 | 979 | 56% | 2009-08-01 | Lost |
| 980 | 1140 | 28% | 2009-07-18 | Won |
| 940 | 979 | 44% | 2009-03-15 | Won |
| 1121 | 1117 | 51% | | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1026.5 vs 1064.8 has a 44.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).