The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (Russian): 11
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1006 | 1083 | 39% | 2025-11-21 | Lost |
| 846 | 1069 | 22% | 2025-11-21 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1030 | 58% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1046 | 56% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
| 1046 | 1119 | 40% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 993 | 1026 | 45% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1060 | 54% | 2014-10-18 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1169 | 58% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
| 1056 | 1059 | 50% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1245 | 1039 | 77% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
| 986 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
| 1143 | 1052 | 63% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
| 986 | 1056 | 40% | 2011-10-07 | Lost |
| 1212 | 1140 | 60% | 2011-10-05 | Lost |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 1239 | 895 | 88% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1047 | 1434 | 10% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1191 | 1239 | 43% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
| 1060 | 1225 | 28% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
| 1243 | 955 | 84% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1092 | 51% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1140 | 1059 | 61% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1060 | 966 | 63% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1095 | 58% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1090.8 vs 1086.5 has a 50.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).