The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (Russian): 11
Defender wins (German): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 980 | 1098 | 34% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 910 | 1052 | 31% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
| 1052 | 1054 | 50% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1050 | 52% | 2014-10-18 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1169 | 58% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
| 1039 | 1059 | 47% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1269 | 965 | 85% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
| 986 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
| 1143 | 1020 | 67% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2011-10-07 | Lost |
| 1206 | 1152 | 58% | 2011-10-05 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1044 | 50% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 1329 | 897 | 92% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1028 | 1413 | 10% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1190 | 1329 | 31% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
| 994 | 1182 | 25% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
| 1146 | 970 | 73% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1091 | 49% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1152 | 1059 | 63% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1050 | 966 | 62% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1090 | 59% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1097.5 vs 1080.9 has a 52.39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).