The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17
Attacker wins (Russian): 10
Defender wins (German): 7
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 980 | 1036 | 42% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 1071 | 1026 | 56% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
| 1026 | 1070 | 44% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1166 | 55% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
| 1036 | 1063 | 46% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1285 | 920 | 89% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
| 987 | 999 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
| 1133 | 989 | 70% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
| 980 | 1036 | 42% | 2011-10-07 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1145 | 45% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 1272 | 1061 | 77% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1028 | 1316 | 16% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1190 | 1272 | 38% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
| 1107 | 907 | 76% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1093 | 50% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1136 | 970 | 72% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1120 | 56% | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1106 vs 1069.9 has a 55.17% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).