Totensonntag
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 175 (60 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 98
Defender wins (German): 77
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 913 | 1092 | 26% | 2025-07-13 | Won |
| 1106 | 1087 | 53% | 2024-10-05 | Lost |
| 1080 | 999 | 61% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1014 | 995 | 53% | 2023-03-03 | Won |
| 1048 | 1125 | 39% | 2022-10-16 | Lost |
| 909 | 1066 | 29% | 2022-03-13 | Lost |
| 964 | 949 | 52% | 2022-02-17 | Lost |
| 1076 | 966 | 65% | 2021-05-20 | Lost |
| 888 | 1102 | 23% | 2020-12-21 | Lost |
| 945 | 880 | 59% | 2020-11-15 | Won |
| 1143 | 1189 | 43% | 2020-07-25 | Lost |
| 984 | 989 | 49% | 2020-05-01 | Won |
| 993 | 1018 | 46% | 2020-04-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1009 | 51% | 2020-04-04 | Lost |
| 975 | 1069 | 37% | 2020-03-12 | Lost |
| 1042 | 999 | 56% | 2020-01-24 | Won |
| 978 | 1000 | 47% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 1073 | 982 | 63% | 2019-07-10 | Won |
| 1070 | 982 | 62% | 2018-01-20 | Won |
| 1264 | 1087 | 73% | 2017-12-01 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1045 | 62% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1058 | 997 | 59% | 2017-06-25 | Won |
| 939 | 1256 | 14% | 2016-11-14 | Lost |
| 1151 | 987 | 72% | 2016-11-04 | Won |
| 1008 | 1025 | 48% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 992 | 1232 | 20% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1140 | 34% | 2015-11-15 | Won |
| 985 | 1000 | 48% | 2015-11-02 | Lost |
| 964 | 995 | 46% | 2015-07-17 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1110 | 36% | 2015-07-09 | Won |
| 1018 | 1120 | 36% | 2015-07-05 | Won |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2015-07-05 | Won |
| 1031 | 979 | 57% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 983 | 1056 | 40% | 2014-04-23 | Won |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2014-04-23 | Won |
| 1012 | 1252 | 20% | 2014-03-21 | Lost |
| 1066 | 999 | 60% | 2014-02-11 | Won |
| 999 | 1066 | 40% | 2014-01-14 | Won |
| 890 | 1006 | 34% | 2013-11-16 | Won |
| 1000 | 953 | 57% | 2013-10-11 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1071 | 41% | 2013-04-06 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1144 | 45% | 2012-11-25 | Won |
| 1080 | 1144 | 41% | 2012-11-25 | Won |
| 881 | 1130 | 19% | 2012-04-30 | Lost |
| 727 | 1140 | 8% | 2012-01-25 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1063 | 44% | 2011-10-30 | Lost |
| 950 | 1023 | 40% | 2011-10-30 | Won |
| 1131 | 1045 | 62% | 2011-10-28 | Won |
| 1344 | 1060 | 84% | 2011-10-22 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1117 | 60% | 2011-10-07 | Won |
| 1253 | 1019 | 79% | 2011-09-08 | Won |
| 1186 | 1037 | 70% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 1131 | 1045 | 62% | 2011-06-25 | Won |
| 1015 | 1192 | 27% | 2011-03-10 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1045 | 60% | 2011-01-14 | Lost |
| 959 | 1039 | 39% | 2010-11-01 | Won |
| 1059 | 1211 | 29% | 2010-10-07 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1140 | 54% | 2010-10-03 | Lost |
| 1232 | 1049 | 74% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
Attacking (32 wins) average ELOs: 1039.7 vs 1063.2 has a 46.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).