Totensonntag
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 176 (61 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 99
Defender wins (German): 77
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1028 | 986 | 56% | 2025-07-13 | Won |
| 1028 | 1028 | 50% | 2024-10-05 | Lost |
| 1080 | 987 | 63% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1040 | 995 | 56% | 2023-03-03 | Won |
| 993 | 1129 | 31% | 2022-10-16 | Lost |
| 909 | 1077 | 28% | 2022-03-13 | Lost |
| 964 | 949 | 52% | 2022-02-17 | Lost |
| 1076 | 944 | 68% | 2021-05-20 | Lost |
| 914 | 1102 | 25% | 2020-12-21 | Lost |
| 945 | 880 | 59% | 2020-11-15 | Won |
| 1143 | 1226 | 38% | 2020-07-25 | Lost |
| 969 | 989 | 47% | 2020-05-01 | Won |
| 977 | 993 | 48% | 2020-04-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1009 | 51% | 2020-04-04 | Lost |
| 977 | 1083 | 35% | 2020-03-12 | Lost |
| 1021 | 999 | 53% | 2020-01-24 | Won |
| 1026 | 1030 | 49% | 2019-11-08 | Won |
| 979 | 1046 | 40% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 1073 | 982 | 63% | 2019-07-10 | Won |
| 1126 | 953 | 73% | 2018-01-20 | Won |
| 1263 | 1087 | 73% | 2017-12-01 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1160 | 48% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1058 | 997 | 59% | 2017-06-25 | Won |
| 939 | 1225 | 16% | 2016-11-14 | Lost |
| 1160 | 981 | 74% | 2016-11-04 | Won |
| 1007 | 933 | 60% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 992 | 1219 | 21% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1140 | 34% | 2015-11-15 | Won |
| 962 | 1002 | 44% | 2015-11-02 | Lost |
| 964 | 995 | 46% | 2015-07-17 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1117 | 35% | 2015-07-09 | Won |
| 1018 | 1120 | 36% | 2015-07-05 | Won |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2015-07-05 | Won |
| 1097 | 979 | 66% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 983 | 1056 | 40% | 2014-04-23 | Won |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2014-04-23 | Won |
| 1012 | 1211 | 24% | 2014-03-21 | Lost |
| 1060 | 999 | 59% | 2014-02-11 | Won |
| 999 | 1060 | 41% | 2014-01-14 | Won |
| 890 | 1039 | 30% | 2013-11-16 | Won |
| 1046 | 953 | 63% | 2013-10-11 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1071 | 41% | 2013-04-06 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1143 | 44% | 2012-11-25 | Won |
| 1080 | 1143 | 41% | 2012-11-25 | Won |
| 881 | 1130 | 19% | 2012-04-30 | Lost |
| 753 | 1140 | 10% | 2012-01-25 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1062 | 44% | 2011-10-30 | Lost |
| 985 | 1024 | 44% | 2011-10-30 | Won |
| 1143 | 1160 | 48% | 2011-10-28 | Won |
| 1342 | 1059 | 84% | 2011-10-22 | Lost |
| 1186 | 1147 | 56% | 2011-10-07 | Won |
| 1253 | 1019 | 79% | 2011-09-08 | Won |
| 1238 | 1037 | 76% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 1143 | 1160 | 48% | 2011-06-25 | Won |
| 1015 | 1202 | 25% | 2011-03-10 | Lost |
| 1147 | 1160 | 48% | 2011-01-14 | Lost |
| 960 | 1039 | 39% | 2010-11-01 | Won |
| 1052 | 1212 | 28% | 2010-10-07 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1140 | 54% | 2010-10-03 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1070 | 70% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
Attacking (33 wins) average ELOs: 1044.1 vs 1066.5 has a 46.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).