By Dawn's Early Light
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 101 (26 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 51
Defender wins (American): 50
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1214 | 23% | 2026-06-06 | | Won |
| 1200 | 1000 | 76% | 2026-06-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2025-06-28 | | Lost |
| 1252 | 1000 | 81% | 2024-10-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2024-10-11 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2023-03-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2023-03-27 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1102 | 58% | 2023-01-21 | | Won |
| 949 | 1056 | 35% | 2023-01-21 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 1005 | 60% | 2022-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 1219 | 36% | 2021-10-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2021-07-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2021-04-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2019-11-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2019-11-23 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2019-10-30 | | Won |
| 876 | 1080 | 24% | 2017-07-30 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1242 | 26% | 2017-07-30 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 958 | 57% | 2017-05-18 | | Won |
| 1010 | 1120 | 35% | 2014-07-07 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 927 | 72% | 2014-02-23 | | Lost |
| 961 | 1141 | 26% | 2012-11-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1170 | 27% | 2012-07-28 | | Lost |
| 1043 | 1108 | 41% | 2012-05-18 | | Won |
| 1019 | 1253 | 21% | 2012-03-11 | | Lost |
| 996 | 957 | 56% | 2012-03-11 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1032.5 vs 1072.8 has a 44.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).