The Devil's Free to Have a Try
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26
Attacker wins (Russian): 11
Defender wins (Hungarian (Vannay) / German (SS)): 15
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1125 | 1097 | 54% | 2025-03-10 | Won |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2024-05-06 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1216 | 45% | 2024-05-03 | Lost |
| 972 | 973 | 50% | 2024-01-03 | Lost |
| 755 | 1058 | 15% | 2023-04-06 | Won |
| 1148 | 1211 | 41% | 2022-04-22 | Won |
| 1189 | 933 | 81% | 2022-03-26 | Won |
| 1014 | 1222 | 23% | 2022-03-10 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1135 | 62% | 2021-01-21 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1109 | 50% | 2020-12-28 | Won |
| 1015 | 1027 | 48% | 2020-07-07 | Won |
| 1217 | 1058 | 71% | 2019-08-23 | Lost |
| 1154 | 853 | 85% | 2019-01-02 | Won |
| 1226 | 1174 | 57% | 2017-08-05 | Won |
| 1226 | 1008 | 78% | 2017-06-07 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2017-04-01 | Lost |
| 1194 | 1029 | 72% | 2014-12-05 | Won |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2014-11-26 | Lost |
| 1068 | 882 | 74% | 2014-11-19 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1008 | 78% | 2014-09-15 | Lost |
| 1217 | 982 | 79% | 2014-06-09 | Won |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2013-01-06 | Lost |
| 978 | 1113 | 31% | 2012-06-29 | Lost |
| 1113 | 978 | 69% | 2012-06-29 | Lost |
| 1206 | 1038 | 72% | 2012-06-10 | Won |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2012-05-27 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1107.9 vs 1055.1 has a 57.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).