The Devil's Free to Have a Try
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 27
Attacker wins (Russian): 12
Defender wins (Hungarian (Vannay) / German (SS)): 15
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1133 | 1055 | 61% | 2026-04-29 | Won |
| 1045 | 1063 | 47% | 2025-03-10 | Won |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2024-05-06 | Lost |
| 1271 | 1245 | 54% | 2024-05-03 | Lost |
| 986 | 968 | 53% | 2024-01-03 | Lost |
| 707 | 1076 | 11% | 2023-04-06 | Won |
| 1069 | 1055 | 52% | 2022-04-22 | Won |
| 1055 | 932 | 67% | 2022-03-26 | Won |
| 1015 | 1223 | 23% | 2022-03-10 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1134 | 62% | 2021-01-21 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1006 | 50% | 2020-12-28 | Won |
| 988 | 1054 | 41% | 2020-07-07 | Won |
| 1217 | 1076 | 69% | 2019-08-23 | Lost |
| 1123 | 851 | 83% | 2019-01-02 | Won |
| 1226 | 1174 | 57% | 2017-08-05 | Won |
| 1226 | 1008 | 78% | 2017-06-07 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1066 | 50% | 2017-04-01 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1046 | 74% | 2014-12-05 | Won |
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2014-11-26 | Lost |
| 1060 | 875 | 74% | 2014-11-19 | Lost |
| 1233 | 1007 | 79% | 2014-09-15 | Lost |
| 1217 | 982 | 79% | 2014-06-09 | Won |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2013-01-06 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1143 | 47% | 2012-06-29 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1125 | 53% | 2012-06-29 | Lost |
| 1225 | 1070 | 71% | 2012-06-10 | Won |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2012-05-27 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1100.7 vs 1054.2 has a 56.65% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).