The Black Ravens are Flying
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 87 (23 on the archive and 64 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 43
Defender wins (German (SS) / Hungarian ): 44
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1127 | 1132 | 49% | 2026-09-01 | | Won |
| 964 | 1075 | 35% | 2025-04-19 | | Won |
| 1044 | 1098 | 42% | 2023-05-13 | | Lost |
| 1023 | 1023 | 50% | 2022-06-19 | | Won |
| 963 | 1038 | 39% | 2022-05-15 | | Lost |
| 1132 | 1178 | 43% | 2019-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2018-05-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2017-10-02 | | Lost |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2017-07-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2017-04-21 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1049 | 64% | 2015-01-07 | | Lost |
| 1053 | 1097 | 44% | 2014-06-09 | | Won |
| 983 | 1218 | 21% | 2014-04-28 | | Lost |
| 917 | 1071 | 29% | 2014-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2013-09-15 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1010 | 59% | 2013-02-14 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 1269 | 34% | 2013-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1074 | 51% | 2013-01-26 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1275 | 32% | 2012-10-04 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2012-06-22 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2012-06-22 | | Won |
| 1034 | 1000 | 55% | 2012-03-09 | | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2012-01-14 | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1064.9 vs 1082.9 has a 47.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).