Makela's End
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 41 (14 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Nationalist): 15
Defender wins (Republican): 26
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 920 | 1064 | 30% | 2023-09-14 | Won |
| 1165 | 1119 | 57% | 2022-06-28 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1012 | 71% | 2022-03-28 | Lost |
| 983 | 1114 | 32% | 2018-11-30 | Lost |
| 1059 | 982 | 61% | 2016-03-24 | Won |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2016-03-23 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1064 | 46% | 2015-05-20 | Lost |
| 1076 | 983 | 63% | 2015-03-21 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1117 | 65% | 2013-10-10 | Won |
| 958 | 893 | 59% | 2013-05-18 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1012 | 71% | 2013-03-28 | Lost |
| 883 | 1140 | 19% | 2012-11-17 | Lost |
| 1040 | 919 | 67% | 2012-10-03 | Won |
| 1102 | 893 | 77% | 2012-05-16 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1054.7 vs 1022.3 has a 54.65% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).