Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (16 on the archive and 42 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 31
Defender wins (American): 27
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 944 | 920 | 53% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 1071 | 1107 | 45% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 937 | 1040 | 36% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1053 | 54% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 947 | 1044 | 36% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 969 | 969 | 50% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1055 | 1031 | 53% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 1019 | 866 | 71% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1110 | 941 | 73% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 849 | 1223 | 10% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1139 | 1116 | 53% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 933 | 1022 | 37% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1058 | 967 | 63% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 1022 | 1105 | 38% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1098 | 41% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1021.2 vs 1045.3 has a 46.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).