Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (19 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 33
Defender wins (American): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1047 | 1043 | 51% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 1016 | 1030 | 48% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1041 | 48% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1054 | 60% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 947 | 1036 | 37% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 1135 | 954 | 74% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 953 | 968 | 48% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1193 | 1215 | 47% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 1063 | 878 | 74% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1115 | 967 | 70% | 2018-06-13 | Won |
| 1099 | 889 | 77% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 806 | 1226 | 8% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 754 | 978 | 22% | 2016-09-13 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1151 | 1123 | 54% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 931 | 1065 | 32% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1040 | 940 | 64% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 1065 | 1124 | 42% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1100 | 40% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1035.4 vs 1045.1 has a 48.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).