Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (18 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 33
Defender wins (American): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 927 | 970 | 44% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 977 | 1018 | 44% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1040 | 46% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1053 | 61% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 1017 | 973 | 56% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 1116 | 910 | 77% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 929 | 929 | 50% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1241 | 1221 | 53% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 1019 | 846 | 73% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1090 | 948 | 69% | 2018-06-13 | Won |
| 1100 | 889 | 77% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 806 | 1223 | 8% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1150 | 1117 | 55% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 932 | 1058 | 33% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1039 | 940 | 64% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 1058 | 1106 | 43% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1098 | 41% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1041.2 vs 1031.2 has a 51.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).