Operation Natzmer
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 45 (25 on the archive and 20 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 26
Defender wins (Russian): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1096 | 1063 | 55% | 2022-11-07 | Won |
| 1096 | 1063 | 55% | 2022-11-07 | Won |
| 1096 | 1063 | 55% | 2022-11-07 | Won |
| 1096 | 1063 | 55% | 2022-11-07 | Won |
| 957 | 949 | 51% | 2022-08-20 | Lost |
| 980 | 970 | 51% | 2022-07-08 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1073 | 53% | 2021-07-10 | Won |
| 961 | 1026 | 41% | 2021-07-10 | Won |
| 985 | 1034 | 43% | 2021-03-05 | Won |
| 949 | 1086 | 31% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
| 945 | 1431 | 6% | 2020-10-21 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1138 | 48% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
| 1034 | 909 | 67% | 2020-04-17 | Lost |
| 967 | 1099 | 32% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 1022 | 949 | 60% | 2018-12-16 | Lost |
| 949 | 1001 | 43% | 2017-02-02 | Won |
| 1111 | 1114 | 50% | 2015-11-13 | Lost |
| 1202 | 1152 | 57% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1114 | 50% | 2015-10-20 | Lost |
| 1212 | 1152 | 59% | 2015-09-15 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1212 | 41% | 2015-08-13 | Won |
| 1431 | 1147 | 84% | 2015-01-18 | Won |
| 1003 | 1003 | 50% | 2014-12-07 | Lost |
| 977 | 949 | 54% | 2013-11-04 | Won |
| 1431 | 1178 | 81% | 2013-10-28 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1079.6 vs 1077.5 has a 50.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).