Probe on the Trail to Hell
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (10 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 15
Defender wins (Japanese): 14
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 906 | 1008 | 36% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 966 | 909 | 58% | 2023-04-24 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1028 | 52% | 2023-03-25 | Won |
| 1073 | 1041 | 55% | 2022-08-21 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1028 | 63% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1243 | 906 | 87% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1098 | 49% | 2016-06-26 | Won |
| 806 | 1091 | 16% | 2016-05-07 | Lost |
| 1254 | 1152 | 64% | 2015-10-04 | Lost |
| 972 | 1057 | 38% | 2015-10-03 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1047.2 vs 1031.8 has a 52.21% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).