Probe on the Trail to Hell
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (11 on the archive and 20 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 15
Defender wins (Japanese): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 975 | 1040 | 41% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 966 | 985 | 47% | 2023-04-24 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1028 | 52% | 2023-03-25 | Won |
| 1073 | 1041 | 55% | 2022-08-21 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1045 | 63% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1243 | 975 | 82% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1100 | 46% | 2016-06-26 | Won |
| 786 | 1072 | 16% | 2016-05-07 | Lost |
| 1283 | 979 | 85% | 2015-12-20 | Lost |
| 1276 | 1140 | 69% | 2015-10-04 | Lost |
| 972 | 1059 | 38% | 2015-10-03 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1075.2 vs 1042.2 has a 54.73% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).