Probe on the Trail to Hell
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (10 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 15
Defender wins (Japanese): 14
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1006 | 1046 | 44% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 966 | 940 | 54% | 2023-04-24 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1028 | 52% | 2023-03-25 | Won |
| 1093 | 1041 | 57% | 2022-08-21 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1002 | 66% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1006 | 80% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1100 | 48% | 2016-06-26 | Won |
| 802 | 1089 | 16% | 2016-05-07 | Lost |
| 1256 | 1152 | 65% | 2015-10-04 | Lost |
| 972 | 1059 | 38% | 2015-10-03 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1058.8 vs 1046.3 has a 51.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).