Probe on the Trail to Hell
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 12
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 3
Defender wins (Japanese): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 965 | 1017 | 43% | 2024-11-14 | | Lost |
| 967 | 981 | 48% | 2023-04-24 | | Lost |
| 1049 | 1000 | 57% | 2023-03-25 | | Won |
| 1039 | 1000 | 56% | 2022-08-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2017-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 969 | 90% | 2017-04-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 965 | 55% | 2016-06-26 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1101 | 45% | 2016-06-26 | | Won |
| 808 | 1064 | 19% | 2016-05-07 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 980 | 82% | 2015-12-20 | | Lost |
| 1275 | 1141 | 68% | 2015-10-04 | | Lost |
| 972 | 1060 | 38% | 2015-10-03 | | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1060.3 vs 1029.8 has a 54.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).