Probe on the Trail to Hell
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 28 (9 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 15
Defender wins (Japanese): 13
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 945 | 975 | 46% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 966 | 927 | 56% | 2023-04-24 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1028 | 52% | 2023-03-25 | Won |
| 1062 | 1039 | 53% | 2022-08-21 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1024 | 63% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1243 | 945 | 85% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1097 | 45% | 2016-06-26 | Won |
| 830 | 1061 | 21% | 2016-05-07 | Lost |
| 978 | 1058 | 39% | 2015-10-03 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1027.4 vs 1017.1 has a 51.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).