Probe on the Trail to Hell
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32 (12 on the archive and 20 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 16
Defender wins (Japanese): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1017 | 48% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 967 | 933 | 55% | 2023-04-24 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1055 | 52% | 2023-03-25 | Won |
| 1006 | 1041 | 45% | 2022-08-21 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1077 | 58% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1342 | 969 | 90% | 2017-04-01 | Won |
| 1244 | 1000 | 80% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1101 | 40% | 2016-06-26 | Won |
| 786 | 1030 | 20% | 2016-05-07 | Lost |
| 1263 | 980 | 84% | 2015-12-20 | Lost |
| 1276 | 1140 | 69% | 2015-10-04 | Lost |
| 972 | 1060 | 38% | 2015-10-03 | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1090.8 vs 1033.6 has a 58.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).