Probe on the Trail to Hell
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 12
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 3
Defender wins (Japanese): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1011 | 1017 | 49% | 2024-11-14 | | Lost |
| 967 | 951 | 52% | 2023-04-24 | | Lost |
| 1068 | 1000 | 60% | 2023-03-25 | | Won |
| 1023 | 1000 | 53% | 2022-08-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1095 | 37% | 2017-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1344 | 969 | 90% | 2017-04-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2016-06-26 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1101 | 40% | 2016-06-26 | | Won |
| 786 | 1029 | 20% | 2016-05-07 | | Lost |
| 1262 | 980 | 84% | 2015-12-20 | | Lost |
| 1275 | 1141 | 68% | 2015-10-04 | | Lost |
| 972 | 1060 | 38% | 2015-10-03 | | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1061.4 vs 1029.5 has a 54.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).