The Golden Arrow
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (14 on the archive and 58 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 37
Defender wins (German): 35
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 926 | 985 | 42% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 1220 | 747 | 94% | 2020-08-03 | Won |
| 1064 | 1128 | 41% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1219 | 25% | 2019-06-09 | Lost |
| 1048 | 995 | 58% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1152 | 964 | 75% | 2017-11-05 | Won |
| 980 | 1052 | 40% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 961 | 1181 | 22% | 2017-08-17 | Lost |
| 1152 | 712 | 93% | 2017-06-28 | Won |
| 1136 | 1163 | 46% | 2017-06-13 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1014 | 53% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1329 | 1062 | 82% | 2017-04-25 | Won |
| 1036 | 1030 | 51% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
| 1036 | 1030 | 51% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1078.9 vs 1020.1 has a 58.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).