The Golden Arrow
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 73 (15 on the archive and 58 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 38
Defender wins (German): 35
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 926 | 1061 | 31% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 1256 | 741 | 95% | 2020-08-03 | Won |
| 1123 | 1078 | 56% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1219 | 25% | 2019-06-09 | Lost |
| 1084 | 982 | 64% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1152 | 964 | 75% | 2017-11-05 | Won |
| 980 | 1051 | 40% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 954 | 1203 | 19% | 2017-08-17 | Lost |
| 1152 | 713 | 93% | 2017-06-28 | Won |
| 1135 | 1151 | 48% | 2017-06-13 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1014 | 52% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1333 | 1063 | 83% | 2017-04-25 | Won |
| 998 | 918 | 61% | 2016-12-05 | Won |
| 1028 | 1031 | 50% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
| 1028 | 1031 | 50% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1080.5 vs 1014.7 has a 59.36% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).