The Golden Arrow
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 74 (16 on the archive and 58 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 38
Defender wins (German): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 923 | 1019 | 37% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 1220 | 750 | 94% | 2020-08-03 | Won |
| 983 | 1110 | 32% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1011 | 52% | 2019-11-10 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1218 | 24% | 2019-06-09 | Lost |
| 907 | 1172 | 18% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1141 | 964 | 73% | 2017-11-05 | Won |
| 980 | 969 | 52% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1070 | 41% | 2017-08-17 | Lost |
| 1141 | 753 | 90% | 2017-06-28 | Won |
| 1132 | 1121 | 52% | 2017-06-13 | Lost |
| 1033 | 977 | 58% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1215 | 1421 | 23% | 2017-04-25 | Won |
| 1075 | 1066 | 51% | 2016-12-05 | Won |
| 1033 | 1033 | 50% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
| 1033 | 1033 | 50% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1054.3 vs 1042.9 has a 51.64% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).