The Golden Arrow
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 76 (18 on the archive and 58 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 39
Defender wins (German): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1064 | 1111 | 43% | 2026-07-17 | Lost |
| 1011 | 995 | 52% | 2026-07-17 | Won |
| 923 | 952 | 46% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 1182 | 736 | 93% | 2020-08-03 | Won |
| 1031 | 1030 | 50% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1010 | 52% | 2019-11-10 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1216 | 24% | 2019-06-09 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1047 | 43% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1141 | 964 | 73% | 2017-11-05 | Won |
| 980 | 1084 | 35% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 966 | 1090 | 33% | 2017-08-17 | Lost |
| 1141 | 777 | 89% | 2017-06-28 | Won |
| 1132 | 1126 | 51% | 2017-06-13 | Lost |
| 1077 | 999 | 61% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1219 | 1420 | 24% | 2017-04-25 | Won |
| 1060 | 1067 | 49% | 2016-12-05 | Won |
| 1077 | 1033 | 56% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
| 1077 | 1033 | 56% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1062.4 vs 1038.3 has a 53.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).