The Golden Arrow
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 73 (15 on the archive and 58 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 38
Defender wins (German): 35
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 925 | 997 | 40% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 1282 | 734 | 96% | 2020-08-03 | Won |
| 1103 | 1117 | 48% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1217 | 25% | 2019-06-09 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1048 | 47% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1151 | 964 | 75% | 2017-11-05 | Won |
| 980 | 1052 | 40% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 940 | 1188 | 19% | 2017-08-17 | Lost |
| 1151 | 713 | 93% | 2017-06-28 | Won |
| 1135 | 1100 | 55% | 2017-06-13 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1014 | 48% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1333 | 1419 | 38% | 2017-04-25 | Won |
| 1048 | 919 | 68% | 2016-12-05 | Won |
| 1003 | 1031 | 46% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
| 1003 | 1031 | 46% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1074.1 vs 1036.3 has a 55.42% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).