Deadly Assumption
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (12 on the archive and 23 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 16
Defender wins (American): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1058 | 1228 | 27% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 975 | 975 | 50% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 1242 | 917 | 87% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 1052 | 1100 | 43% | 2023-02-03 | Lost |
| 970 | 927 | 56% | 2023-01-31 | Won |
| 913 | 866 | 57% | 2020-09-16 | Won |
| 973 | 1011 | 45% | 2020-04-18 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1062 | 81% | 2018-05-04 | Won |
| 1218 | 970 | 81% | 2017-08-13 | Lost |
| 984 | 1099 | 34% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1052 | 57% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 874 | 998 | 33% | 2016-04-29 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1055.7 vs 1017.1 has a 55.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).