Deadly Assumption
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 38 (12 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (American): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1147 | 1275 | 32% | 2024-06-27 | | Lost |
| 930 | 1000 | 40% | 2023-03-05 | | Lost |
| 1253 | 1016 | 80% | 2023-03-02 | | Won |
| 996 | 1129 | 32% | 2023-02-03 | | Lost |
| 998 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-01-31 | | Won |
| 961 | 1000 | 44% | 2020-09-16 | | Won |
| 954 | 1093 | 31% | 2020-04-18 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2018-05-04 | | Won |
| 1076 | 964 | 66% | 2017-08-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1083 | 38% | 2016-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1083 | 968 | 66% | 2016-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 972 | 54% | 2016-04-29 | | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1051.4 vs 1041.7 has a 51.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).