Deadly Assumption
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37 (12 on the archive and 25 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 17
Defender wins (American): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1098 | 1276 | 26% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 972 | 972 | 50% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 1243 | 971 | 83% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 1030 | 1112 | 38% | 2023-02-03 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1001 | 52% | 2023-01-31 | Won |
| 904 | 865 | 56% | 2020-09-16 | Won |
| 964 | 1076 | 34% | 2020-04-18 | Lost |
| 1274 | 1420 | 30% | 2018-05-04 | Won |
| 1184 | 970 | 77% | 2017-08-13 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1086 | 40% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1086 | 969 | 66% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 873 | 889 | 48% | 2016-04-29 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1054.9 vs 1050.6 has a 50.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).