The Winter City
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (39 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Slovak): 46
Defender wins (Polish): 49
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1051 | 43% | 2026-06-10 | | Lost |
| 993 | 977 | 52% | 2025-05-29 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2025-05-19 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 977 | 57% | 2025-05-19 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1029 | 43% | 2025-05-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 993 | 51% | 2025-04-24 | | Lost |
| 977 | 993 | 48% | 2025-04-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2025-02-06 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2025-01-06 | | Won |
| 1030 | 1000 | 54% | 2024-05-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1032 | 45% | 2024-03-02 | | Won |
| 1164 | 900 | 82% | 2023-11-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2023-11-18 | | Lost |
| 1004 | 987 | 52% | 2023-04-13 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1111 | 41% | 2023-03-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2023-03-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2021-07-22 | | Won |
| 1068 | 1000 | 60% | 2021-05-24 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-04-02 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1164 | 34% | 2021-02-10 | | Won |
| 880 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-01-11 | | Lost |
| 965 | 1000 | 45% | 2020-03-26 | | Won |
| 1023 | 906 | 66% | 2020-03-17 | | Won |
| 953 | 1069 | 34% | 2020-02-08 | | Lost |
| 1066 | 1192 | 33% | 2019-10-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1203 | 24% | 2019-08-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1075 | 39% | 2019-05-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1132 | 32% | 2019-02-07 | | Won |
| 1029 | 1140 | 35% | 2018-12-28 | | Lost |
| 945 | 1140 | 25% | 2017-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1051 | 54% | 2017-10-15 | | Won |
| 1123 | 975 | 70% | 2017-04-09 | | Won |
| 1123 | 975 | 70% | 2017-04-09 | | Won |
| 1123 | 975 | 70% | 2017-04-09 | | Won |
| 1162 | 951 | 77% | 2017-04-01 | | Won |
| 1063 | 959 | 65% | 2016-11-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1099 | 36% | 2016-04-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1095 | 37% | 2016-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1070 | 43% | | | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1027.9 vs 1029.9 has a 49.7% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).