The Winter City
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 85 (32 on the archive and 53 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Slovak): 43
Defender wins (Polish): 42
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 996 | 995 | 50% | 2025-02-06 | Won |
| 1117 | 1080 | 55% | 2025-01-06 | Won |
| 1030 | 1016 | 52% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1164 | 1157 | 51% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1158 | 926 | 79% | 2023-11-28 | Won |
| 945 | 945 | 50% | 2023-11-18 | Lost |
| 1010 | 987 | 53% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 993 | 1085 | 37% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 912 | 951 | 44% | 2023-03-18 | Won |
| 904 | 971 | 40% | 2021-07-22 | Won |
| 1041 | 1038 | 50% | 2021-05-24 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1013 | 52% | 2021-04-02 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2021-02-10 | Won |
| 881 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-01-11 | Lost |
| 966 | 1004 | 45% | 2020-03-26 | Won |
| 1042 | 918 | 67% | 2020-03-17 | Won |
| 955 | 1079 | 33% | 2020-02-08 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1168 | 35% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1153 | 1203 | 43% | 2019-08-17 | Won |
| 1009 | 1195 | 26% | 2019-05-13 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1205 | 32% | 2018-12-28 | Lost |
| 968 | 1205 | 20% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1068 | 51% | 2017-10-15 | Won |
| 1157 | 1028 | 68% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1157 | 1028 | 68% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1157 | 1028 | 68% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1138 | 927 | 77% | 2017-04-01 | Won |
| 1050 | 1009 | 56% | 2016-11-16 | Won |
| 1149 | 865 | 84% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 865 | 1195 | 13% | 2016-04-05 | Won |
| 1032 | 1024 | 51% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1105 | 39% | | Won |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1039.2 vs 1049.5 has a 48.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).