The Winter City
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (39 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Slovak): 54
Defender wins (Polish): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1038 | 997 | 56% | 2025-05-29 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1087 | 52% | 2025-05-19 | Lost |
| 1100 | 997 | 64% | 2025-05-19 | Lost |
| 997 | 1100 | 36% | 2025-05-01 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1038 | 57% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 997 | 1038 | 44% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 996 | 976 | 53% | 2025-02-06 | Won |
| 1107 | 1131 | 47% | 2025-01-06 | Won |
| 1030 | 1016 | 52% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1112 | 1083 | 54% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1154 | 912 | 80% | 2023-11-28 | Won |
| 1061 | 932 | 68% | 2023-11-18 | Lost |
| 1016 | 987 | 54% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 1010 | 1075 | 41% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 912 | 951 | 44% | 2023-03-18 | Won |
| 904 | 971 | 40% | 2021-07-22 | Won |
| 1071 | 1049 | 53% | 2021-05-24 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1014 | 54% | 2021-04-02 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2021-02-10 | Won |
| 881 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-01-11 | Lost |
| 998 | 1007 | 49% | 2020-03-26 | Won |
| 1064 | 920 | 70% | 2020-03-17 | Won |
| 954 | 1118 | 28% | 2020-02-08 | Lost |
| 1062 | 1142 | 39% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1153 | 1268 | 34% | 2019-08-17 | Won |
| 1014 | 1181 | 28% | 2019-05-13 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1124 | 37% | 2019-02-07 | Won |
| 1054 | 1189 | 31% | 2018-12-28 | Lost |
| 964 | 1189 | 21% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1068 | 51% | 2017-10-15 | Won |
| 1127 | 1025 | 64% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1127 | 1025 | 64% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1127 | 1025 | 64% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1146 | 909 | 80% | 2017-04-01 | Won |
| 1052 | 1008 | 56% | 2016-11-16 | Won |
| 1158 | 764 | 91% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 764 | 1143 | 10% | 2016-04-05 | Won |
| 1030 | 1036 | 49% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1090 | 41% | | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1040.8 vs 1044.9 has a 49.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).