The Winter City
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (39 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Slovak): 46
Defender wins (Polish): 49
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1019 | 990 | 54% | 2025-05-29 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2025-05-19 | Lost |
| 1046 | 990 | 58% | 2025-05-19 | Lost |
| 990 | 1046 | 42% | 2025-05-01 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1019 | 54% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 990 | 1019 | 46% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 996 | 1007 | 48% | 2025-02-06 | Won |
| 1101 | 975 | 67% | 2025-01-06 | Won |
| 1030 | 1016 | 52% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1112 | 1112 | 50% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1135 | 895 | 80% | 2023-11-28 | Won |
| 1063 | 1020 | 56% | 2023-11-18 | Lost |
| 1024 | 987 | 55% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 1013 | 1095 | 38% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 912 | 951 | 44% | 2023-03-18 | Won |
| 904 | 971 | 40% | 2021-07-22 | Won |
| 1071 | 1049 | 53% | 2021-05-24 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1203 | 33% | 2021-04-02 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1163 | 34% | 2021-02-10 | Won |
| 881 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-01-11 | Lost |
| 930 | 1007 | 39% | 2020-03-26 | Won |
| 1109 | 919 | 75% | 2020-03-17 | Won |
| 954 | 1073 | 34% | 2020-02-08 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1201 | 31% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1153 | 1254 | 36% | 2019-08-17 | Won |
| 1014 | 1148 | 32% | 2019-05-13 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1135 | 36% | 2019-02-07 | Won |
| 1060 | 1189 | 32% | 2018-12-28 | Lost |
| 964 | 1189 | 21% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1068 | 51% | 2017-10-15 | Won |
| 1154 | 972 | 74% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1154 | 972 | 74% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1154 | 972 | 74% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1152 | 944 | 77% | 2017-04-01 | Won |
| 1029 | 1008 | 53% | 2016-11-16 | Won |
| 1206 | 997 | 77% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 997 | 1113 | 34% | 2016-04-05 | Won |
| 1031 | 1010 | 53% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1117 | 40% | | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1045.8 vs 1047.3 has a 49.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).