Costly Baptism
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 176 (61 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 95
Defender wins (Polish): 80
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Polish): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1046 | 1019 | 54% | 2025-07-31 | Lost |
| 990 | 1019 | 46% | 2025-07-31 | Lost |
| 1025 | 980 | 56% | 2025-04-04 | Won |
| 843 | 965 | 33% | 2025-02-18 | Won |
| 1102 | 976 | 67% | 2025-02-07 | Won |
| 920 | 1075 | 29% | 2024-09-08 | Lost |
| 931 | 973 | 44% | 2024-04-02 | Won |
| 1084 | 1084 | 50% | 2024-03-23 | Won |
| 1123 | 1020 | 64% | 2023-11-18 | Won |
| 1010 | 1018 | 49% | 2023-09-19 | Won |
| 889 | 951 | 41% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 970 | 957 | 52% | 2023-03-08 | Won |
| 1284 | 1293 | 49% | 2023-01-31 | Lost |
| 1308 | 1193 | 66% | 2022-06-17 | Lost |
| 958 | 931 | 54% | 2022-06-06 | Lost |
| 1013 | 965 | 57% | 2022-05-31 | Lost |
| 931 | 953 | 47% | 2022-03-19 | Won |
| 904 | 971 | 40% | 2022-01-27 | Won |
| 1079 | 1203 | 33% | 2021-04-17 | Won |
| 881 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
| 1063 | 1013 | 57% | 2021-02-16 | Won |
| 1063 | 1074 | 48% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 1135 | 1178 | 44% | 2020-07-22 | Won |
| 969 | 968 | 50% | 2020-05-29 | Won |
| 989 | 980 | 51% | 2020-05-22 | Won |
| 907 | 864 | 56% | 2020-05-14 | Lost |
| 954 | 1073 | 34% | 2020-03-14 | Won |
| 1063 | 1207 | 30% | 2020-03-08 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1196 | 30% | 2019-08-01 | Lost |
| 1057 | 931 | 67% | 2018-08-11 | Won |
| 1091 | 1091 | 50% | 2018-08-05 | Won |
| 930 | 922 | 51% | 2018-07-15 | Won |
| 1029 | 930 | 64% | 2018-06-18 | Won |
| 930 | 1123 | 25% | 2018-04-26 | Won |
| 1075 | 1008 | 60% | 2018-04-21 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1058 | 53% | 2018-04-08 | Won |
| 1144 | 1102 | 56% | 2018-03-20 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1037 | 51% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1027 | 1193 | 28% | 2017-08-04 | Lost |
| 903 | 972 | 40% | 2017-04-16 | Won |
| 903 | 972 | 40% | 2017-04-16 | Won |
| 1154 | 972 | 74% | 2017-04-13 | Won |
| 1009 | 1055 | 43% | 2017-02-10 | Won |
| 1023 | 1049 | 46% | 2017-01-28 | Lost |
| 931 | 972 | 44% | 2017-01-07 | Won |
| 1090 | 1340 | 19% | 2016-09-28 | Lost |
| 941 | 1249 | 15% | 2016-09-03 | Won |
| 1010 | 1031 | 47% | 2016-07-20 | Won |
| 1014 | 1113 | 36% | 2016-07-08 | Won |
| 1072 | 1074 | 50% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1233 | 1174 | 58% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 882 | 1079 | 24% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 1123 | 1068 | 58% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 739 | 1151 | 9% | 2016-05-11 | Lost |
| 938 | 1242 | 15% | 2016-04-18 | Lost |
| 1206 | 1014 | 75% | 2016-04-13 | Won |
| 1122 | 1007 | 66% | 2016-03-06 | Won |
| 1124 | 890 | 79% | 2016-03-01 | Won |
| 1091 | 1118 | 46% | | Won |
| 1171 | 1118 | 58% | | Won |
| 1118 | 1048 | 60% | | Lost |
Attacking (42 wins) average ELOs: 1027.8 vs 1052.6 has a 46.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).