Costly Baptism
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 168 (54 on the archive and 114 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 92
Defender wins (Polish): 75
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Polish): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 864 | 924 | 41% | 2025-02-18 | Won |
| 1117 | 1080 | 55% | 2025-02-07 | Won |
| 873 | 1070 | 24% | 2024-09-08 | Lost |
| 927 | 975 | 43% | 2024-04-02 | Won |
| 1157 | 1146 | 52% | 2024-03-23 | Won |
| 1061 | 945 | 66% | 2023-11-18 | Won |
| 1024 | 1040 | 48% | 2023-09-19 | Won |
| 924 | 951 | 46% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 969 | 958 | 52% | 2023-03-08 | Won |
| 1306 | 1310 | 49% | 2022-06-17 | Lost |
| 928 | 927 | 50% | 2022-06-06 | Lost |
| 993 | 924 | 60% | 2022-05-31 | Lost |
| 927 | 957 | 46% | 2022-03-19 | Won |
| 904 | 971 | 40% | 2022-01-27 | Won |
| 1024 | 1013 | 52% | 2021-04-17 | Won |
| 881 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
| 945 | 938 | 51% | 2021-02-16 | Won |
| 1061 | 1090 | 46% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 861 | 1085 | 22% | 2020-05-29 | Won |
| 1011 | 1043 | 45% | 2020-05-22 | Won |
| 966 | 863 | 64% | 2020-05-14 | Lost |
| 955 | 1079 | 33% | 2020-03-14 | Won |
| 1061 | 1168 | 35% | 2020-03-08 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1205 | 32% | 2019-08-01 | Lost |
| 1055 | 927 | 68% | 2018-08-11 | Won |
| 1042 | 1042 | 50% | 2018-08-05 | Won |
| 925 | 917 | 51% | 2018-07-15 | Won |
| 1050 | 929 | 67% | 2018-06-18 | Won |
| 929 | 1195 | 18% | 2018-04-26 | Won |
| 1073 | 1118 | 44% | 2018-04-21 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1058 | 54% | 2018-04-08 | Won |
| 1158 | 1102 | 58% | 2018-03-20 | Lost |
| 988 | 1038 | 43% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1013 | 1310 | 15% | 2017-08-04 | Lost |
| 900 | 1028 | 32% | 2017-04-16 | Won |
| 900 | 1028 | 32% | 2017-04-16 | Won |
| 1157 | 1028 | 68% | 2017-04-13 | Won |
| 1002 | 1004 | 50% | 2017-02-10 | Won |
| 1002 | 1041 | 44% | 2017-01-28 | Lost |
| 927 | 972 | 44% | 2017-01-07 | Won |
| 1096 | 1302 | 23% | 2016-09-28 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1248 | 20% | 2016-09-03 | Won |
| 1024 | 1032 | 49% | 2016-07-20 | Won |
| 865 | 1195 | 13% | 2016-07-08 | Won |
| 1061 | 1068 | 49% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1225 | 1161 | 59% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 913 | 1024 | 35% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 938 | 1203 | 18% | 2016-04-18 | Lost |
| 1149 | 865 | 84% | 2016-04-13 | Won |
| 1110 | 1010 | 64% | 2016-03-06 | Won |
| 1102 | 889 | 77% | 2016-03-01 | Won |
| 1105 | 1028 | 61% | | Lost |
| 1168 | 1105 | 59% | | Won |
| 1166 | 1105 | 59% | | Won |
Attacking (39 wins) average ELOs: 1017.6 vs 1048.9 has a 45.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).