Costly Baptism
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 178 (64 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 105
Defender wins (Polish): 73
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Polish): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1004 | 1000 | 51% | 2026-02-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 993 | 51% | 2025-07-31 | | Lost |
| 977 | 993 | 48% | 2025-07-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2025-04-04 | | Won |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2025-02-18 | | Won |
| 1089 | 1000 | 63% | 2025-02-07 | | Won |
| 909 | 1077 | 28% | 2024-09-08 | | Lost |
| 951 | 973 | 47% | 2024-04-02 | | Won |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2024-03-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2023-11-18 | D | Won |
| 1098 | 1013 | 62% | 2023-09-19 | | Won |
| 841 | 950 | 35% | 2023-03-14 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1000 | 46% | 2023-03-08 | | Won |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2023-02-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1269 | 18% | 2023-01-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1241 | 20% | 2022-06-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2022-06-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2022-06-06 | | Lost |
| 1051 | 944 | 65% | 2022-05-31 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2022-03-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2022-01-27 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-04-17 | | Won |
| 880 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-03-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 976 | 53% | 2021-02-16 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2020-10-28 | | Won |
| 1132 | 1178 | 43% | 2020-07-22 | | Won |
| 962 | 974 | 48% | 2020-05-29 | | Won |
| 989 | 969 | 53% | 2020-05-22 | | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2020-05-14 | | Lost |
| 953 | 1090 | 31% | 2020-03-14 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1200 | 32% | 2020-03-08 | | Lost |
| 1030 | 1140 | 35% | 2019-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1048 | 951 | 64% | 2018-08-11 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2018-08-05 | | Won |
| 930 | 1000 | 40% | 2018-07-15 | | Won |
| 1055 | 987 | 60% | 2018-06-18 | | Won |
| 987 | 1075 | 38% | 2018-04-26 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2018-04-21 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2018-04-08 | | Won |
| 1196 | 1000 | 76% | 2018-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1038 | 50% | 2017-12-26 | | Won |
| 1021 | 1241 | 22% | 2017-08-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 975 | 54% | 2017-04-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 975 | 54% | 2017-04-16 | | Won |
| 1123 | 975 | 70% | 2017-04-13 | | Won |
| 1043 | 1002 | 56% | 2017-02-10 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1041 | 45% | 2017-01-28 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2017-01-07 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2016-09-28 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2016-09-03 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2016-07-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2016-07-08 | | Won |
| 1020 | 1073 | 42% | 2016-06-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1100 | 36% | 2016-06-12 | | Won |
| 875 | 1080 | 24% | 2016-06-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2016-06-12 | | Won |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2016-05-11 | | Lost |
| 939 | 1217 | 17% | 2016-04-18 | | Lost |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2016-04-13 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1009 | 65% | 2016-03-06 | | Won |
| 1134 | 891 | 80% | 2016-03-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
| 1202 | 1086 | 66% | | | Won |
| 1086 | 1018 | 60% | | | Lost |
Attacking (45 wins) average ELOs: 1017.9 vs 1035.4 has a 47.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).