A Bitter Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (15 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 17
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1139 | 1055 | 62% | 2024-10-26 | Won |
| 979 | 970 | 51% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1089 | 967 | 67% | 2023-03-27 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1030 | 67% | 2023-03-11 | Tied |
| 1115 | 1139 | 47% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 1123 | 982 | 69% | 2021-08-17 | Lost |
| 919 | 1139 | 22% | 2020-06-27 | Won |
| 997 | 989 | 51% | 2020-05-29 | Lost |
| 990 | 1153 | 28% | 2019-05-05 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1096 | 63% | 2018-05-21 | Lost |
| 979 | 1142 | 28% | 2017-07-28 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1333 | 20% | 2017-01-20 | Won |
| 1263 | 938 | 87% | 2016-08-29 | Won |
| 874 | 1263 | 10% | 2016-08-27 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1028 | 50% | 2016-07-07 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1062.5 vs 1081.6 has a 47.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).