A Bitter Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 49 (17 on the archive and 32 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 17
Defender wins (German): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1023 | 1023 | 50% | 2025-12-28 | Lost |
| 966 | 1019 | 42% | 2025-11-09 | Lost |
| 1194 | 1050 | 70% | 2024-10-26 | Won |
| 979 | 970 | 51% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1067 | 980 | 62% | 2023-03-27 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1020 | 64% | 2023-03-11 | Tied |
| 1114 | 1194 | 39% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 1123 | 982 | 69% | 2021-08-17 | Lost |
| 919 | 1085 | 28% | 2020-06-27 | Won |
| 996 | 989 | 51% | 2020-05-29 | Lost |
| 955 | 1158 | 24% | 2019-05-05 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1109 | 63% | 2018-05-21 | Lost |
| 979 | 1143 | 28% | 2017-07-28 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1274 | 34% | 2017-01-20 | Won |
| 1279 | 938 | 88% | 2016-08-29 | Won |
| 873 | 1279 | 9% | 2016-08-27 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1037 | 49% | 2016-07-07 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1057.7 vs 1073.5 has a 47.72% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).