A Bitter Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (17 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 17
Defender wins (German): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1023 | 988 | 55% | 2025-12-28 | Lost |
| 944 | 1089 | 30% | 2025-11-09 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1029 | 62% | 2024-10-26 | Won |
| 977 | 970 | 51% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1080 | 966 | 66% | 2023-03-27 | Lost |
| 1145 | 1017 | 68% | 2023-03-11 | Tied |
| 1134 | 1113 | 53% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 1123 | 982 | 69% | 2021-08-17 | Lost |
| 906 | 1019 | 34% | 2020-06-27 | Won |
| 969 | 989 | 47% | 2020-05-29 | Lost |
| 987 | 1123 | 31% | 2019-05-05 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1107 | 57% | 2018-05-21 | Lost |
| 979 | 1188 | 23% | 2017-07-28 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1251 | 37% | 2017-01-20 | Won |
| 1210 | 939 | 83% | 2016-08-29 | Won |
| 874 | 1210 | 13% | 2016-08-27 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1051 | 47% | 2016-07-07 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1047.6 vs 1060.6 has a 48.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).