Confusion Reigns
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 211 (16 on the archive and 195 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 127
Defender wins (German): 84
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 962 | 974 | 48% | 2025-05-07 | | Won |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2024-02-20 | | Won |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2022-03-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1075 | 39% | 2022-03-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 959 | 56% | 2022-01-29 | | Won |
| 959 | 1047 | 38% | 2022-01-01 | | Won |
| 996 | 1217 | 22% | 2021-03-05 | | Won |
| 996 | 1172 | 27% | 2021-03-02 | | Won |
| 1217 | 996 | 78% | 2021-03-01 | | Won |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2021-02-08 | | Lost |
| 1061 | 1000 | 59% | 2021-01-04 | | Won |
| 1103 | 927 | 73% | 2020-04-07 | | Won |
| 947 | 973 | 46% | 2019-02-09 | | Won |
| 1075 | 935 | 69% | 2016-12-06 | | Won |
| 850 | 1000 | 30% | 2016-11-02 | | Won |
| 1089 | 1000 | 63% | 2016-10-06 | | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1001.6 vs 1013.7 has a 48.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).