Lost Opportunities
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 248 (20 on the archive and 228 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 132
Defender wins (American): 116
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 967 | 969 | 50% | 2025-12-05 | Lost |
| 935 | 923 | 52% | 2025-11-17 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1097 | 53% | 2024-06-08 | Won |
| 918 | 970 | 43% | 2023-01-13 | Won |
| 1256 | 999 | 81% | 2021-10-29 | Won |
| 1100 | 1079 | 53% | 2020-07-06 | Won |
| 1009 | 1014 | 49% | 2020-06-24 | Won |
| 1256 | 756 | 95% | 2020-05-15 | Won |
| 980 | 1003 | 47% | 2020-05-02 | Lost |
| 975 | 962 | 52% | 2020-02-23 | Won |
| 911 | 1107 | 24% | 2019-07-19 | Lost |
| 1071 | 1057 | 52% | 2018-11-02 | Lost |
| 1007 | 892 | 66% | 2018-05-12 | Lost |
| 969 | 972 | 50% | 2018-03-18 | Won |
| 1045 | 892 | 71% | 2017-08-12 | Won |
| 904 | 949 | 44% | 2017-05-15 | Lost |
| 928 | 887 | 56% | 2017-04-05 | Won |
| 980 | 1090 | 35% | 2016-10-30 | Lost |
| 980 | 879 | 64% | 2016-10-11 | Won |
| 1086 | 987 | 64% | 2011-09-01 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1019.7 vs 974.2 has a 56.51% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).