Lost Opportunities
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 249 (21 on the archive and 228 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 133
Defender wins (American): 116
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1205 | 1007 | 76% | 2026-04-30 | | Won |
| 974 | 962 | 52% | 2025-12-05 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2025-11-17 | | Lost |
| 1145 | 1000 | 70% | 2024-06-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 970 | 54% | 2023-01-13 | | Won |
| 1203 | 1004 | 76% | 2021-10-29 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1075 | 54% | 2020-07-06 | | Won |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2020-06-24 | | Won |
| 1203 | 734 | 94% | 2020-05-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1002 | 50% | 2020-05-02 | | Lost |
| 992 | 944 | 57% | 2020-02-23 | | Won |
| 911 | 1108 | 24% | 2019-07-19 | | Lost |
| 1068 | 1055 | 52% | 2018-11-02 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 881 | 68% | 2018-05-12 | | Lost |
| 959 | 973 | 48% | 2018-03-18 | | Won |
| 1095 | 881 | 77% | 2017-08-12 | | Won |
| 904 | 948 | 44% | 2017-05-15 | | Lost |
| 965 | 1000 | 45% | 2017-04-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1089 | 37% | 2016-10-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 888 | 66% | 2016-10-11 | | Won |
| 1152 | 987 | 72% | 2011-09-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1041.5 vs 976.6 has a 59.24% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).