Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 39 (13 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 16
Defender wins (German): 22
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1002 | 1068 | 41% | 2026-04-08 | Lost |
| 984 | 979 | 51% | 2026-03-18 | Won |
| 884 | 1102 | 22% | 2025-09-20 | Lost |
| 1343 | 1220 | 67% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 755 | 984 | 21% | 2022-03-14 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1068 | 60% | 2022-02-17 | Won |
| 952 | 1056 | 35% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1099 | 60% | 2021-03-05 | Won |
| 998 | 1113 | 34% | 2020-10-07 | Lost |
| 1002 | 884 | 66% | 2020-04-16 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1009 | 58% | 2017-12-19 | Won |
| 1123 | 1118 | 51% | 2017-04-28 | Lost |
| 970 | 1123 | 29% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1030 vs 1063.3 has a 45.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).