Castles on the Horizon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 48 (12 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (British): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1025 | 1029 | 49% | 2024-08-15 | Won |
| 1148 | 929 | 78% | 2022-12-11 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1109 | 56% | 2022-07-16 | Lost |
| 998 | 1084 | 38% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 866 | 917 | 43% | 2021-08-17 | Won |
| 1103 | 1098 | 51% | 2020-04-30 | Won |
| 944 | 965 | 47% | 2020-02-29 | Lost |
| 998 | 1028 | 46% | 2019-06-01 | Won |
| 1078 | 1029 | 57% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1029 | 930 | 64% | 2017-05-01 | Lost |
| 1206 | 1100 | 65% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-29 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1052.7 vs 1025.5 has a 53.9% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).