Castles on the Horizon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (14 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 19
Defender wins (British): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1027 | 46% | 2024-08-15 | | Won |
| 1075 | 907 | 72% | 2022-12-11 | | Lost |
| 1129 | 1025 | 65% | 2022-07-16 | | Lost |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2021-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2021-08-17 | | Won |
| 1102 | 1000 | 64% | 2020-04-30 | | Won |
| 955 | 1000 | 44% | 2020-02-29 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2019-06-01 | | Won |
| 1263 | 1041 | 78% | 2017-10-20 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1063 | 62% | 2017-10-05 | | Won |
| 983 | 1344 | 11% | 2017-05-13 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 966 | 58% | 2017-05-01 | | Lost |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2017-04-07 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2017-03-29 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1074.9 vs 1031.1 has a 56.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).