Castles on the Horizon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 48 (12 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (British): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1017 | 1017 | 50% | 2024-08-15 | Won |
| 1199 | 885 | 86% | 2022-12-11 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1128 | 53% | 2022-07-16 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1073 | 50% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 866 | 913 | 43% | 2021-08-17 | Won |
| 1106 | 1091 | 52% | 2020-04-30 | Won |
| 944 | 966 | 47% | 2020-02-29 | Lost |
| 1017 | 973 | 56% | 2019-06-01 | Won |
| 1058 | 1080 | 47% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1037 | 1007 | 54% | 2017-05-01 | Lost |
| 1170 | 1001 | 73% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-29 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1060.5 vs 1018.5 has a 56.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).