Castles on the Horizon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 49 (13 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 19
Defender wins (British): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1026 | 1055 | 46% | 2024-08-15 | Won |
| 1102 | 930 | 73% | 2022-12-11 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1073 | 61% | 2022-07-16 | Lost |
| 991 | 1094 | 36% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 865 | 904 | 44% | 2021-08-17 | Won |
| 1102 | 1099 | 50% | 2020-04-30 | Won |
| 945 | 965 | 47% | 2020-02-29 | Lost |
| 1045 | 975 | 60% | 2019-06-01 | Won |
| 1283 | 1040 | 80% | 2017-10-20 | Won |
| 1098 | 1045 | 58% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1019 | 879 | 69% | 2017-05-01 | Lost |
| 1248 | 991 | 81% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1073.9 vs 1010.6 has a 59.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).