Trial Run
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 55 (17 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 37
Defender wins (German): 18
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 977 | 59% | 2024-06-14 | Won |
| 913 | 866 | 57% | 2022-03-17 | Lost |
| 973 | 1017 | 44% | 2021-05-29 | Won |
| 1014 | 1014 | 50% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 1009 | 1019 | 49% | 2020-04-22 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1019 | 49% | 2020-04-22 | Lost |
| 1041 | 894 | 70% | 2018-03-11 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2017-12-02 | Won |
| 1086 | 904 | 74% | 2017-09-02 | Won |
| 1084 | 1009 | 61% | 2017-08-04 | Won |
| 1058 | 976 | 62% | 2017-07-01 | Lost |
| 975 | 1113 | 31% | 2017-05-22 | Won |
| 1170 | 977 | 75% | 2017-05-07 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1026 | 55% | 2017-04-02 | Lost |
| 1080 | 999 | 61% | 2017-02-16 | Won |
| 1011 | 1131 | 33% | | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1030.5 vs 1002.6 has a 54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).