The Cost of Non-Compliance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 70 (24 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 25
Defender wins (German): 44
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 952 | 1156 | 24% | 2026-01-10 | Lost |
| 1184 | 1004 | 74% | 2025-11-29 | Won |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2024-11-21 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1145 | 47% | 2024-10-27 | Tied |
| 1053 | 999 | 58% | 2024-06-13 | Won |
| 1125 | 1119 | 51% | 2021-12-27 | Won |
| 973 | 1311 | 13% | 2021-05-16 | Lost |
| 928 | 886 | 56% | 2021-03-13 | Won |
| 1042 | 1084 | 44% | 2021-02-04 | Lost |
| 984 | 993 | 49% | 2019-04-21 | Won |
| 1123 | 992 | 68% | 2018-10-05 | Won |
| 992 | 1099 | 35% | 2018-02-17 | Lost |
| 992 | 1099 | 35% | 2018-02-17 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1060 | 66% | 2017-11-07 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2017-08-12 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2017-07-22 | Won |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2017-07-19 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1174 | 57% | 2017-05-06 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-26 | Lost |
| 862 | 1146 | 16% | 2017-03-25 | Lost |
| 952 | 1034 | 38% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1056 | 72% | 2017-03-12 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1044 | 74% | 2017-02-19 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1141 | 38% | 2017-01-13 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1058.3 vs 1066.9 has a 48.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).