The Cost of Non-Compliance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 70 (24 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 25
Defender wins (German): 44
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1056 | 952 | 65% | 2026-01-10 | Lost |
| 1220 | 999 | 78% | 2025-11-29 | Won |
| 999 | 982 | 52% | 2024-11-21 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1146 | 47% | 2024-10-27 | Tied |
| 1053 | 999 | 58% | 2024-06-13 | Won |
| 1125 | 1159 | 45% | 2021-12-27 | Won |
| 973 | 1306 | 13% | 2021-05-16 | Lost |
| 890 | 884 | 51% | 2021-03-13 | Won |
| 1052 | 1131 | 39% | 2021-02-04 | Lost |
| 984 | 993 | 49% | 2019-04-21 | Won |
| 1123 | 992 | 68% | 2018-10-05 | Won |
| 998 | 1063 | 41% | 2018-02-17 | Lost |
| 998 | 1063 | 41% | 2018-02-17 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1062 | 65% | 2017-11-07 | Lost |
| 1160 | 919 | 80% | 2017-08-12 | Lost |
| 1160 | 919 | 80% | 2017-07-22 | Won |
| 1160 | 919 | 80% | 2017-07-19 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1174 | 57% | 2017-05-06 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-26 | Lost |
| 862 | 1135 | 17% | 2017-03-25 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1034 | 53% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 1234 | 1056 | 74% | 2017-03-12 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1053 | 72% | 2017-02-19 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1128 | 40% | 2017-01-13 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1083 vs 1048.2 has a 55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).