The Cost of Non-Compliance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69 (24 on the archive and 45 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 25
Defender wins (German): 43
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 995 | 1020 | 46% | 2026-01-10 | Lost |
| 1282 | 999 | 84% | 2025-11-29 | Won |
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2024-11-21 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1124 | 50% | 2024-10-27 | Tied |
| 1053 | 999 | 58% | 2024-06-13 | Won |
| 1126 | 1159 | 45% | 2021-12-27 | Won |
| 973 | 1307 | 13% | 2021-05-16 | Lost |
| 904 | 884 | 53% | 2021-03-13 | Won |
| 1072 | 1144 | 40% | 2021-02-04 | Lost |
| 950 | 993 | 44% | 2019-04-21 | Won |
| 1139 | 992 | 70% | 2018-10-05 | Won |
| 975 | 1079 | 35% | 2018-02-17 | Lost |
| 975 | 1079 | 35% | 2018-02-17 | Lost |
| 1248 | 1073 | 73% | 2017-11-07 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1010 | 54% | 2017-08-12 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1010 | 54% | 2017-07-22 | Won |
| 1040 | 1010 | 54% | 2017-07-19 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1174 | 57% | 2017-05-06 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-26 | Lost |
| 861 | 1098 | 20% | 2017-03-25 | Lost |
| 995 | 1025 | 46% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 1252 | 1056 | 76% | 2017-03-12 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1052 | 68% | 2017-02-19 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1127 | 40% | 2017-01-13 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1065.6 vs 1061.8 has a 50.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).