The Replacements
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 54 (17 on the archive and 37 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian): 32
Defender wins (Russian): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1120 | 1065 | 58% | 2026-02-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1177 | 27% | 2026-01-31 | | Won |
| 974 | 1298 | 13% | 2026-01-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 941 | 58% | 2025-10-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 979 | 53% | 2020-08-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 973 | 54% | 2019-12-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 2019-10-11 | | Won |
| 904 | 1103 | 24% | 2019-03-15 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 1000 | 61% | 2018-09-16 | | Tied |
| 1007 | 1000 | 51% | 2018-07-29 | | Won |
| 1008 | 918 | 63% | 2018-04-14 | | Lost |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2018-04-06 | | Won |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2018-04-03 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2018-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 970 | 73% | 2018-03-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2018-03-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2018-01-12 | | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1023.9 vs 1064.5 has a 44.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).