First Timers
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 126 (46 on the archive and 80 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 69
Defender wins (German): 56
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 991 | 955 | 55% | 2025-10-25 | Won |
| 938 | 1009 | 40% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 844 | 966 | 33% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 969 | 1117 | 30% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 844 | 966 | 33% | 2023-01-12 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1021 | 59% | 2022-06-22 | Won |
| 1427 | 1017 | 91% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 919 | 865 | 58% | 2022-05-25 | Lost |
| 967 | 1136 | 27% | 2022-05-07 | Won |
| 1005 | 1038 | 45% | 2021-08-25 | Won |
| 1066 | 962 | 65% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1028 | 958 | 60% | 2021-02-13 | Won |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-12-23 | Lost |
| 1147 | 983 | 72% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1094 | 1152 | 42% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 1002 | 1102 | 36% | 2020-08-18 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-04-13 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1008 | 54% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1116 | 1048 | 60% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1056 | 1109 | 42% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1117 | 1125 | 49% | 2019-08-28 | Lost |
| 1054 | 826 | 79% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1197 | 1173 | 53% | 2019-01-28 | Won |
| 1234 | 1218 | 52% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 985 | 891 | 63% | 2019-01-12 | Won |
| 1144 | 1031 | 66% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 1102 | 920 | 74% | 2018-12-29 | Won |
| 1264 | 1427 | 28% | 2018-12-27 | Lost |
| 876 | 1059 | 26% | 2018-12-24 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1190 | 38% | 2018-12-21 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1108 | 40% | 2018-12-08 | Tied |
| 911 | 1046 | 31% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 941 | 929 | 52% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1063 | 953 | 65% | 2018-11-18 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1131 | 51% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 1238 | 953 | 84% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 970 | 1106 | 31% | 2018-10-21 | Lost |
| 1113 | 851 | 82% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1232 | 1177 | 58% | 2018-10-17 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1081 | 47% | 2018-10-12 | Won |
| 1042 | 1043 | 50% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1110 | 1056 | 58% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1136 | 1226 | 37% | 2018-09-10 | Won |
| 771 | 1006 | 21% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 998 | 1005 | 49% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1052.4 vs 1047.2 has a 50.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).