First Timers
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 124 (45 on the archive and 79 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 59
Defender wins (German): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 933 | 1000 | 40% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 888 | 920 | 45% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 991 | 1070 | 39% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 888 | 920 | 45% | 2023-01-12 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1022 | 54% | 2022-06-22 | Won |
| 1400 | 1017 | 90% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 851 | 866 | 48% | 2022-05-25 | Lost |
| 981 | 1093 | 34% | 2022-05-07 | Won |
| 1041 | 1003 | 55% | 2021-08-25 | Won |
| 1066 | 1004 | 59% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1043 | 958 | 62% | 2021-02-13 | Won |
| 1031 | 1170 | 31% | 2020-12-23 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1064 | 1151 | 38% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 1003 | 1141 | 31% | 2020-08-18 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-04-13 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1017 | 53% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 972 | 999 | 46% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1039 | 1111 | 40% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 995 | 1106 | 35% | 2019-08-28 | Lost |
| 1093 | 844 | 81% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1195 | 1113 | 62% | 2019-01-28 | Won |
| 1227 | 1219 | 51% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 985 | 892 | 63% | 2019-01-12 | Won |
| 1099 | 1058 | 56% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 900 | 962 | 41% | 2018-12-29 | Won |
| 1262 | 1400 | 31% | 2018-12-27 | Lost |
| 876 | 1078 | 24% | 2018-12-24 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1170 | 41% | 2018-12-21 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1093 | 44% | 2018-12-08 | Tied |
| 911 | 1025 | 34% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 928 | 929 | 50% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 943 | 1061 | 34% | 2018-11-18 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1135 | 50% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 1038 | 974 | 59% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 919 | 1025 | 35% | 2018-10-21 | Lost |
| 1165 | 863 | 85% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1334 | 1059 | 83% | 2018-10-17 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1030 | 54% | 2018-10-12 | Won |
| 1035 | 1043 | 49% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1035 | 1039 | 49% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1136 | 1226 | 37% | 2018-09-10 | Won |
| 791 | 1001 | 23% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 880 | 1005 | 33% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 841 | 1132 | 16% | | Won |
Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1028.9 vs 1046 has a 47.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).