Insurrection at Cividale
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 40 (11 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian): 18
Defender wins (German (SS)): 21
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1124 | 1031 | 63% | 2024-04-11 | Tied |
| 1040 | 1064 | 47% | 2023-08-25 | Lost |
| 953 | 1140 | 25% | 2022-10-27 | Lost |
| 972 | 981 | 49% | 2022-03-01 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1063 | 58% | 2021-05-15 | Lost |
| 908 | 907 | 50% | 2021-01-26 | Lost |
| 1183 | 1132 | 57% | 2020-07-25 | Won |
| 1148 | 948 | 76% | 2020-02-18 | Lost |
| 944 | 1223 | 17% | 2019-06-28 | Lost |
| 948 | 1053 | 35% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
| 1310 | 1082 | 79% | 2019-02-13 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1059 vs 1056.7 has a 50.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).