Insurrection at Cividale
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 44 (13 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian): 21
Defender wins (German (SS)): 22
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2026-07-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 975 | 54% | 2025-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1145 | 1051 | 63% | 2024-04-11 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1023 | 47% | 2023-08-25 | | Lost |
| 987 | 1075 | 38% | 2022-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2022-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1095 | 37% | 2021-05-15 | | Lost |
| 931 | 951 | 47% | 2021-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1164 | 1138 | 54% | 2020-07-25 | | Won |
| 1205 | 1000 | 76% | 2020-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2019-06-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2019-05-13 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2019-02-13 | | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1062.1 vs 1046.8 has a 52.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).