Insurrection at Cividale
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 40 (11 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian): 18
Defender wins (German (SS)): 21
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1149 | 1068 | 61% | 2024-04-11 | Tied |
| 1040 | 1082 | 44% | 2023-08-25 | Lost |
| 910 | 1219 | 14% | 2022-10-27 | Lost |
| 952 | 982 | 46% | 2022-03-01 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1014 | 65% | 2021-05-15 | Lost |
| 899 | 896 | 50% | 2021-01-26 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1145 | 49% | 2020-07-25 | Won |
| 1147 | 1032 | 66% | 2020-02-18 | Lost |
| 927 | 1223 | 15% | 2019-06-28 | Lost |
| 1032 | 994 | 55% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
| 1316 | 1096 | 78% | 2019-02-13 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1057.5 vs 1068.3 has a 48.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).