A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 59 (24 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 29
Defender wins (German): 29
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1024 | 1178 | 29% | 2026-06-19 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1008 | 61% | 2025-11-08 | | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2025-04-25 | | Won |
| 987 | 982 | 51% | 2025-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2025-04-25 | | Won |
| 954 | 1000 | 43% | 2023-11-03 | A | Won |
| 1136 | 1000 | 69% | 2023-11-03 | | Won |
| 1056 | 755 | 85% | 2023-10-30 | | Won |
| 954 | 1103 | 30% | 2023-10-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2023-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2022-06-01 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1347 | 11% | 2022-03-26 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 954 | 65% | 2021-11-13 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1156 | 36% | 2021-11-06 | | Lost |
| 1061 | 973 | 62% | 2020-12-12 | | Tied |
| 1056 | 1024 | 55% | 2020-10-09 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1170 | 58% | 2020-04-17 | | Won |
| 947 | 1136 | 25% | 2020-04-02 | | Lost |
| 1266 | 1000 | 82% | 2020-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1057 | 42% | 2020-02-01 | | Lost |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2020-01-24 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1055 | 39% | 2019-12-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2019-08-02 | | Won |
| 1242 | 1002 | 80% | 2019-05-07 | | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1060.5 vs 1059 has a 50.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).