A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (23 on the archive and 35 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 28
Defender wins (German): 28
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1056 | 1007 | 57% | 2025-11-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 910 | 63% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 959 | 981 | 47% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1056 | 44% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 910 | 1153 | 20% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1096 | 919 | 73% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1027 | 778 | 81% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 910 | 1103 | 25% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1229 | 1283 | 42% | 2023-03-01 | Lost |
| 1255 | 891 | 89% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 989 | 1342 | 12% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1087 | 910 | 73% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1173 | 39% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 1020 | 973 | 57% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1027 | 1065 | 45% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1186 | 1180 | 51% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 946 | 1096 | 30% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1256 | 1010 | 80% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1043 | 55% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1253 | 37% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1024 | 43% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1027 | 64% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
| 1283 | 1002 | 83% | 2019-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1073.3 vs 1051.3 has a 53.16% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).