A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (18 on the archive and 28 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 17
Defender wins (German): 27
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1095 | 922 | 73% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
959 | 927 | 55% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
1083 | 800 | 84% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
925 | 983 | 42% | 2023-10-14 | Won |
959 | 1090 | 32% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
925 | 888 | 55% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
1058 | 1261 | 24% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
1108 | 959 | 70% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
1052 | 1142 | 37% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
938 | 1033 | 37% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
1083 | 992 | 63% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
1197 | 1327 | 32% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
953 | 1095 | 31% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
1175 | 1089 | 62% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
1078 | 1078 | 50% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
1086 | 1307 | 22% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
977 | 1087 | 35% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
1113 | 1083 | 54% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1042.4 vs 1059.1 has a 47.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).