A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 54 (20 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 22
Defender wins (German): 30
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 909 | 911 | 50% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 918 | 966 | 43% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1056 | 47% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 950 | 1150 | 24% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1163 | 920 | 80% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1028 | 779 | 81% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 950 | 1098 | 30% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1177 | 890 | 84% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 988 | 1324 | 13% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1095 | 950 | 70% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1127 | 47% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 1006 | 989 | 52% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1028 | 1052 | 47% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1242 | 38% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 953 | 1163 | 23% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1274 | 1010 | 82% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1043 | 55% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1329 | 21% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1052 | 39% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1028 | 62% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1049.7 vs 1054 has a 49.39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).