The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 33 (9 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 13
Defender wins (German): 20
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1009 | 1011 | 50% | 2024-08-23 | Won |
| 1136 | 966 | 73% | 2023-02-26 | Won |
| 1006 | 1203 | 24% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
| 937 | 1126 | 25% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 1062 | 1020 | 56% | 2021-02-15 | Won |
| 1059 | 1110 | 43% | 2021-01-02 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1024 | 51% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
| 1189 | 1205 | 48% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1096 | 1302 | 23% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1058.7 vs 1107.4 has a 43.03% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).