The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 34 (10 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 14
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 996 | 51% | 2024-08-23 | Won |
| 1100 | 981 | 66% | 2023-02-26 | Won |
| 1006 | 1275 | 18% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
| 917 | 1012 | 37% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1084 | 49% | 2021-02-15 | Won |
| 1079 | 1107 | 46% | 2021-01-02 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1002 | 53% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
| 1152 | 998 | 71% | 2020-11-01 | Won |
| 1187 | 1203 | 48% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1096 | 1333 | 20% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1063.1 vs 1099.1 has a 44.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).