The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 34 (10 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 14
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 975 | 61% | 2024-08-23 | Won |
| 1090 | 981 | 65% | 2023-02-26 | Won |
| 1006 | 1221 | 22% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
| 904 | 985 | 39% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1082 | 49% | 2021-02-15 | Won |
| 1107 | 1122 | 48% | 2021-01-02 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1037 | 48% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
| 1138 | 973 | 72% | 2020-11-01 | Won |
| 1194 | 1177 | 52% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1135 | 1274 | 31% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1072.3 vs 1082.7 has a 48.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).