Feast Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (30 on the archive and 65 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 43
Defender wins (German): 52
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1018 | 1001 | 52% | 2025-09-29 | Lost |
| 1249 | 1141 | 65% | 2025-09-05 | Won |
| 1056 | 1089 | 45% | 2025-05-16 | Won |
| 889 | 991 | 36% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 880 | 879 | 50% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 967 | 1043 | 39% | 2025-03-21 | Won |
| 1089 | 1089 | 50% | 2025-02-09 | Lost |
| 1045 | 844 | 76% | 2024-08-03 | Won |
| 1094 | 1018 | 61% | 2024-06-21 | Lost |
| 1060 | 971 | 63% | 2024-06-21 | Won |
| 964 | 1076 | 34% | 2023-08-04 | Won |
| 1057 | 1073 | 48% | 2020-12-13 | Lost |
| 967 | 981 | 48% | 2020-11-29 | Lost |
| 1053 | 972 | 61% | 2020-11-28 | Lost |
| 920 | 1010 | 37% | 2020-11-19 | Won |
| 1054 | 1191 | 31% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1054 | 1184 | 32% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1140 | 1031 | 65% | 2020-05-31 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-05-10 | Lost |
| 1218 | 992 | 79% | 2020-05-07 | Lost |
| 904 | 1058 | 29% | 2020-04-26 | Lost |
| 967 | 957 | 51% | 2020-04-25 | Lost |
| 1219 | 973 | 80% | 2020-04-07 | Won |
| 1157 | 1087 | 60% | 2020-04-02 | Won |
| 733 | 1140 | 9% | 2020-03-11 | Lost |
| 1201 | 1135 | 59% | 2020-02-27 | Won |
| 1009 | 1057 | 43% | 2020-02-18 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1044 | 55% | 2020-01-18 | Lost |
| 982 | 1217 | 21% | 2020-01-17 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1164 | 38% | 2020-01-17 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1039.9 vs 1049.9 has a 48.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).