Posts 9-11
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 9 (5 on the archive and 4 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 4
Defender wins (Italian): 4
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Australian): 0
Defender wins (Italian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1116 | 1116 | 50% | 2026-05-12 | Won |
| 808 | 1076 | 18% | 2025-08-06 | Lost |
| 1186 | 1073 | 66% | 2023-12-30 | Won |
| 955 | 1092 | 31% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1110 | 54% | 2023-06-13 | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1040 vs 1093.4 has a 42.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).