First Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 65 (20 on the archive and 45 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 32
Defender wins (French): 29
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 4
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (French): 3
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1184 | 1241 | 42% | 2026-08-10 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1031 | 47% | 2026-08-01 | Lost |
| 1241 | 1184 | 58% | 2026-07-24 | Lost |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2026-07-03 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1047 | 43% | 2026-07-03 | Lost |
| 1198 | 1227 | 46% | 2026-06-28 | Won |
| 939 | 1016 | 39% | 2026-05-01 | Won |
| 1102 | 1217 | 34% | 2026-04-11 | Won |
| 1185 | 1228 | 44% | 2026-04-06 | Lost |
| 1181 | 1217 | 45% | 2026-03-26 | Won |
| 1185 | 1037 | 70% | 2026-03-21 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1126 | 41% | 2026-03-18 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1063 | 53% | 2026-03-13 | Won |
| 922 | 965 | 44% | 2026-03-08 | Won |
| 1011 | 1253 | 20% | 2026-03-06 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2026-02-20 | Lost |
| 1198 | 1044 | 71% | 2026-01-30 | Won |
| 1100 | 1180 | 39% | 2025-12-06 | Won |
| 1060 | 1082 | 47% | 2025-10-19 | Won |
| 975 | 945 | 54% | 2024-10-07 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1089.4 vs 1111.8 has a 46.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).