The Czerniakow Bridgehead
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 282 (57 on the archive and 225 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 134
Defender wins (Russian/Partisan (AK)): 147
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2026-09-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 869 | 68% | 2025-03-21 | | Won |
| 979 | 1000 | 47% | 2024-06-28 | | Won |
| 998 | 1000 | 50% | 2024-01-28 | | Lost |
| 891 | 1009 | 34% | 2022-01-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1227 | 21% | 2021-07-19 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 1227 | 23% | 2021-07-19 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2021-04-03 | | Lost |
| 1057 | 1172 | 34% | 2019-12-26 | | Won |
| 1055 | 948 | 65% | 2018-12-22 | | Won |
| 1055 | 948 | 65% | 2018-12-22 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2018-06-21 | | Won |
| 966 | 971 | 49% | 2018-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-01-24 | | Lost |
| 1052 | 987 | 59% | 2017-05-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2017-05-13 | | Won |
| 1085 | 894 | 75% | 2017-04-13 | | Won |
| 1044 | 1000 | 56% | 2016-11-19 | | Won |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2016-10-02 | | Lost |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2016-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2016-08-10 | | Lost |
| 1243 | 1156 | 62% | 2016-05-07 | | Lost |
| 1089 | 1000 | 63% | 2015-01-15 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2014-10-22 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2014-02-07 | | Lost |
| 1039 | 1000 | 56% | 2014-01-11 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2013-11-12 | | Lost |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2013-07-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1085 | 38% | 2013-07-15 | | Lost |
| 1012 | 1000 | 52% | 2013-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1012 | 1000 | 52% | 2013-02-24 | | Lost |
| 900 | 1000 | 36% | 2013-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1196 | 24% | 2012-11-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2012-09-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2011-10-14 | | Won |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2011-09-26 | | Lost |
| 880 | 1000 | 33% | 2011-08-21 | | Lost |
| 974 | 1000 | 46% | 2011-07-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2011-04-27 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 940 | 79% | 2011-01-19 | | Won |
| 966 | 1013 | 43% | 2011-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2010-05-16 | | Won |
| 1090 | 839 | 81% | 2009-02-08 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2008-03-29 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1134 | 64% | 2007-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2006-06-06 | | Won |
| 1057 | 988 | 60% | 2004-11-20 | | Lost |
| 862 | 1000 | 31% | 2004-08-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2004-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1100 | 1000 | 64% | 2002-06-16 | | Won |
| 827 | 1000 | 27% | 2002-05-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2002-03-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1078 | 39% | 1998-09-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 1998-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 1994-03-04 | | Won |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 1991-04-13 | | Tied |
| 1086 | 966 | 67% | | | Won |
Attacking (27 wins) average ELOs: 1022.6 vs 1018.7 has a 50.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).