Confusion Reigns
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 237 (44 on the archive and 193 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 135
Defender wins (German): 100
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1029 | 1116 | 38% | 2024-02-20 | Won |
| 1036 | 990 | 57% | 2024-01-07 | Lost |
| 971 | 924 | 57% | 2023-08-30 | Lost |
| 920 | 1110 | 25% | 2023-04-22 | Won |
| 1053 | 940 | 66% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
| 1053 | 940 | 66% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
| 831 | 1217 | 10% | 2019-10-17 | Lost |
| 1054 | 957 | 64% | 2019-07-26 | Won |
| 1050 | 1027 | 53% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
| 1223 | 1008 | 78% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 995 | 1049 | 42% | 2016-09-12 | Lost |
| 973 | 1032 | 42% | 2016-08-21 | Won |
| 1042 | 911 | 68% | 2016-05-07 | Won |
| 1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2015-12-10 | Won |
| 984 | 1054 | 40% | 2015-08-28 | Won |
| 983 | 1038 | 42% | 2014-08-16 | Won |
| 1114 | 900 | 77% | 2014-06-07 | Won |
| 1094 | 944 | 70% | 2014-05-25 | Lost |
| 831 | 1219 | 10% | 2014-01-18 | Lost |
| 1219 | 831 | 90% | 2013-12-08 | Won |
| 1019 | 1219 | 24% | 2013-10-01 | Won |
| 1219 | 1061 | 71% | 2013-09-26 | Lost |
| 956 | 1061 | 35% | 2013-09-13 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1154 | 32% | 2012-12-02 | Lost |
| 951 | 861 | 63% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
| 951 | 889 | 59% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
| 962 | 881 | 61% | 2011-09-14 | Won |
| 1177 | 1037 | 69% | 2010-03-18 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1030 | 47% | 2009-11-16 | Won |
| 1006 | 1133 | 32% | 2009-07-30 | Lost |
| 919 | 1138 | 22% | 2009-02-27 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1029 | 50% | 2009-01-01 | Lost |
| 943 | 1032 | 37% | 2008-05-14 | Lost |
| 957 | 1047 | 37% | 2007-04-22 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1026 | 47% | 2007-04-14 | Won |
| 1132 | 1228 | 37% | 2007-01-05 | Lost |
| 1061 | 973 | 62% | 2005-01-15 | Won |
| 935 | 862 | 60% | 2005-01-14 | Won |
| 1010 | 1097 | 38% | 2004-11-18 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1034 | 57% | 2004-08-10 | Won |
| 1084 | 1097 | 48% | 2004-06-17 | Lost |
| 1133 | 978 | 71% | 2002-09-07 | Won |
| 1015 | 1097 | 38% | 2002-06-29 | Lost |
| 1217 | 911 | 85% | 1994-04-10 | Lost |
Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1031.3 vs 1027.2 has a 50.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).