ASL Scenario Archive

Lost Opportunities

Games with no balance used/recorded: 38

Attacker wins (German): 21

Defender wins (American): 13

With balance for the defender (only):

Games played: 3

Attacker wins (German): 3

Defender wins (American): 0

Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.

Attacker ELO	Defender ELO	Expected chance to win	Date	Outcome
982	1023	44%	2023-12-11	Won
1186	829	89%	2023-11-27	Won
1010	1033	47%	2023-11-03	Won
1133	1107	54%	2023-03-30	Won
1142	1127	52%	2022-08-15	Lost
914	1053	31%	2020-12-10	Won
914	1053	31%	2020-12-10	Won
997	916	61%	2020-06-24	Won
1009	980	54%	2020-01-10	Lost
1186	938	81%	2019-12-20	Won
1152	909	80%	2017-08-26	Won
1268	1143	67%	2017-02-13	Lost
1010	1033	47%	2016-11-15	Won
1027	1242	22%	2016-08-27	Lost
985	1019	45%	2016-01-08	Won
1268	1016	81%	2015-02-19	Lost
1087	1094	49%	2014-07-02	Lost
1154	1181	46%	2013-09-19	Won
873	907	45%	2013-01-31	Won
951	890	59%	2012-12-02	Won
951	861	63%	2012-12-02	Won
1040	1073	45%	2012-03-15	Won
920	976	42%	2011-12-29	Won
964	996	45%	2010-06-05	Lost
1060	989	60%	2009-09-19	Lost
1250	997	81%	2009-06-06	Won
920	1268	12%	2008-09-16	Lost
1268	946	86%	2007-04-10	Won
832	832	50%	2006-10-05	Lost
1158	1268	35%	2004-06-16	Won
1036	1068	45%	2001-10-01	Won
987	1115	32%	2001-03-11	Lost
1050	929	67%	1998-10-08	Won
1075	1074	50%	1998-08-14	Lost
1050	929	67%	1998-07-05	Tied
1110	1186	39%	1994-08-01	Won
985	1019	45%	1992-02-05	Won
1090	1090	50%		Lost

Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1052.5 vs 1029.2 has a 53.35% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).