Lost Opportunities
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37
Attacker wins (German): 20
Defender wins (American): 13
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 3
Attacker wins (German): 3
Defender wins (American): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 979 | 1022 | 44% | 2023-12-11 | Won |
| 1153 | 829 | 87% | 2023-11-27 | Won |
| 1013 | 1030 | 48% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1133 | 1106 | 54% | 2023-03-30 | Won |
| 1190 | 1127 | 59% | 2022-08-15 | Lost |
| 953 | 1043 | 37% | 2020-12-10 | Won |
| 953 | 1043 | 37% | 2020-12-10 | Won |
| 984 | 916 | 60% | 2020-06-24 | Won |
| 1009 | 980 | 54% | 2020-01-10 | Lost |
| 1153 | 940 | 77% | 2019-12-20 | Won |
| 1152 | 973 | 74% | 2017-08-26 | Won |
| 805 | 1109 | 15% | 2017-02-13 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1030 | 48% | 2016-11-15 | Won |
| 1026 | 1215 | 25% | 2016-08-27 | Lost |
| 984 | 983 | 50% | 2016-01-08 | Won |
| 805 | 1013 | 23% | 2015-02-19 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1094 | 49% | 2014-07-02 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1183 | 46% | 2013-09-19 | Won |
| 889 | 907 | 47% | 2013-01-31 | Won |
| 951 | 890 | 59% | 2012-12-02 | Won |
| 951 | 861 | 63% | 2012-12-02 | Won |
| 1040 | 1082 | 44% | 2012-03-15 | Won |
| 919 | 976 | 42% | 2011-12-29 | Won |
| 1007 | 996 | 52% | 2010-06-05 | Lost |
| 1055 | 988 | 60% | 2009-09-19 | Lost |
| 1249 | 997 | 81% | 2009-06-06 | Won |
| 920 | 805 | 66% | 2008-09-16 | Lost |
| 805 | 949 | 30% | 2007-04-10 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-10-05 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1068 | 41% | 2001-10-01 | Won |
| 987 | 1163 | 27% | 2001-03-11 | Lost |
| 1068 | 929 | 69% | 1998-10-08 | Won |
| 1075 | 1074 | 50% | 1998-08-14 | Lost |
| 1068 | 929 | 69% | 1998-07-05 | Tied |
| 1110 | 1153 | 44% | 1994-08-01 | Won |
| 984 | 983 | 50% | 1992-02-05 | Won |
| 1104 | 1090 | 52% | | Lost |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1015.2 vs 1008.3 has a 50.99% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).