Gavin's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 19 (12 on the archive and 7 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / British): 13
Defender wins (German): 5
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1122 | 1107 | 52% | 2025-06-01 | Won |
| 1033 | 1010 | 53% | 2018-12-06 | Won |
| 987 | 909 | 61% | 2016-11-06 | Won |
| 1066 | 1228 | 28% | 2014-05-30 | Lost |
| 890 | 951 | 41% | 2013-11-24 | Won |
| 1060 | 965 | 63% | 2012-12-26 | Won |
| 1041 | 1087 | 43% | 2012-07-07 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1016 | 69% | 2009-09-21 | Tied |
| 1041 | 1009 | 55% | 2006-12-28 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-10-29 | Lost |
| 1158 | 764 | 91% | 2005-08-19 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1110 | 61% | 1994-08-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1047.5 vs 999 has a 56.93% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).