Gavin's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 18 (11 on the archive and 7 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / British): 13
Defender wins (German): 4
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1089 | 37% | 2025-06-01 | | Won |
| 1014 | 1024 | 49% | 2018-12-06 | | Won |
| 1002 | 950 | 57% | 2016-11-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2014-05-30 | | Lost |
| 891 | 951 | 41% | 2013-11-24 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2012-12-26 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2012-07-07 | | Lost |
| 1152 | 1000 | 71% | 2009-09-21 | | Tied |
| 939 | 1000 | 41% | 2006-12-28 | | Won |
| 832 | 1000 | 28% | 2006-10-29 | | Lost |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 1994-08-29 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1012.5 vs 1022.5 has a 48.57% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).