Round One
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 151 (28 on the archive and 123 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 68
Defender wins (Polish): 83
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1082 | 1118 | 45% | 2024-08-05 | Lost |
| 955 | 937 | 53% | 2023-01-08 | Won |
| 1131 | 970 | 72% | 2021-11-08 | Lost |
| 881 | 797 | 62% | 2021-10-12 | Lost |
| 1133 | 937 | 76% | 2021-06-26 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1012 | 50% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1259 | 933 | 87% | 2020-09-19 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1011 | 52% | 2020-01-13 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1055 | 55% | 2019-12-10 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1006 | 67% | 2019-04-30 | Lost |
| 955 | 1011 | 42% | 2015-11-19 | Lost |
| 939 | 1142 | 24% | 2015-09-12 | Won |
| 1000 | 1084 | 38% | 2015-08-27 | Lost |
| 1259 | 1026 | 79% | 2015-02-16 | Won |
| 1072 | 1009 | 59% | 2013-05-24 | Won |
| 1033 | 1130 | 36% | 2011-10-04 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-04-30 | Won |
| 867 | 1011 | 30% | 2010-04-05 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1228 | 43% | 2009-05-03 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1029 | 60% | 2007-11-17 | Won |
| 1260 | 1050 | 77% | 2003-07-25 | Won |
| 1046 | 1044 | 50% | 2001-11-02 | Won |
| 1045 | 1111 | 41% | 2000-06-15 | Lost |
| 969 | 1072 | 36% | 1999-10-01 | Won |
| 1077 | 1048 | 54% | 1999-03-26 | Won |
| 1082 | 1055 | 54% | 1999-03-18 | Won |
| 1188 | 1129 | 58% | 1999-03-06 | Won |
| 1072 | 1005 | 60% | 1998-11-17 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1065 vs 1037.5 has a 53.95% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).