Round One
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 157 (31 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 81
Defender wins (Polish): 76
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1114 | 1104 | 51% | 2024-08-05 | Lost |
| 948 | 1025 | 39% | 2023-01-08 | Won |
| 1103 | 913 | 75% | 2021-11-08 | Lost |
| 917 | 796 | 67% | 2021-10-12 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1025 | 74% | 2021-06-26 | Lost |
| 1282 | 971 | 86% | 2020-09-19 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1012 | 53% | 2020-01-13 | Lost |
| 997 | 1083 | 38% | 2019-12-10 | Lost |
| 1194 | 1007 | 75% | 2019-04-30 | Lost |
| 879 | 1029 | 30% | 2015-11-19 | Lost |
| 941 | 1144 | 24% | 2015-09-12 | Won |
| 1000 | 1052 | 43% | 2015-08-27 | Lost |
| 1282 | 1026 | 81% | 2015-02-16 | Won |
| 882 | 1068 | 26% | 2014-10-23 | Lost |
| 1068 | 882 | 74% | 2014-10-02 | Won |
| 1003 | 1014 | 48% | 2013-05-24 | Won |
| 957 | 1110 | 29% | 2011-10-04 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-04-30 | Won |
| 866 | 1011 | 30% | 2010-04-05 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1228 | 43% | 2009-05-03 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1028 | 63% | 2007-11-17 | Won |
| 1216 | 1049 | 72% | 2003-07-25 | Won |
| 1040 | 1054 | 48% | 2001-11-02 | Won |
| 1035 | 1204 | 27% | 2000-06-15 | Lost |
| 1080 | 855 | 79% | 2000-02-04 | Lost |
| 970 | 1003 | 45% | 1999-10-01 | Won |
| 1117 | 1093 | 53% | 1999-03-26 | Won |
| 1083 | 1083 | 50% | 1999-03-18 | Won |
| 1196 | 1174 | 53% | 1999-03-06 | Won |
| 713 | 1151 | 7% | 1999-01-05 | Lost |
| 1072 | 932 | 69% | 1998-11-17 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1047.4 vs 1039.3 has a 51.17% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).