Round One
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 151 (28 on the archive and 123 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 68
Defender wins (Polish): 83
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | 2024-08-05 | Lost |
| 943 | 748 | 75% | 2023-01-08 | Won |
| 1106 | 965 | 69% | 2021-11-08 | Lost |
| 913 | 795 | 66% | 2021-10-12 | Lost |
| 1189 | 748 | 93% | 2021-06-26 | Lost |
| 1266 | 1017 | 81% | 2020-09-19 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1021 | 50% | 2020-01-13 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1073 | 50% | 2019-12-10 | Lost |
| 1199 | 1003 | 76% | 2019-04-30 | Lost |
| 993 | 1042 | 43% | 2015-11-19 | Lost |
| 929 | 1144 | 22% | 2015-09-12 | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2015-08-27 | Lost |
| 1266 | 1026 | 80% | 2015-02-16 | Won |
| 1041 | 1011 | 54% | 2013-05-24 | Won |
| 994 | 1141 | 30% | 2011-10-04 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-04-30 | Won |
| 866 | 1010 | 30% | 2010-04-05 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1228 | 43% | 2009-05-03 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1029 | 62% | 2007-11-17 | Won |
| 1264 | 1050 | 77% | 2003-07-25 | Won |
| 1044 | 1043 | 50% | 2001-11-02 | Won |
| 1049 | 1241 | 25% | 2000-06-15 | Lost |
| 1014 | 855 | 71% | 2000-02-04 | Lost |
| 968 | 1041 | 40% | 1999-10-01 | Won |
| 1067 | 1128 | 41% | 1999-03-26 | Won |
| 1082 | 1073 | 51% | 1999-03-18 | Won |
| 1187 | 1122 | 59% | 1999-03-06 | Won |
| 1072 | 958 | 66% | 1998-11-17 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1068.4 vs 1027.6 has a 55.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).