Round One
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 157 (31 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 71
Defender wins (Polish): 86
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1078 | 1083 | 49% | 2024-08-05 | Lost |
| 946 | 1020 | 40% | 2023-01-08 | Won |
| 1110 | 972 | 69% | 2021-11-08 | Lost |
| 900 | 796 | 65% | 2021-10-12 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1020 | 72% | 2021-06-26 | Lost |
| 1220 | 965 | 81% | 2020-09-19 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1017 | 51% | 2020-01-13 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1044 | 50% | 2019-12-10 | Lost |
| 1194 | 1007 | 75% | 2019-04-30 | Lost |
| 998 | 1062 | 41% | 2015-11-19 | Lost |
| 977 | 1144 | 28% | 2015-09-12 | Won |
| 1000 | 1052 | 43% | 2015-08-27 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1027 | 75% | 2015-02-16 | Won |
| 881 | 1050 | 27% | 2014-10-23 | Lost |
| 1050 | 881 | 73% | 2014-10-02 | Won |
| 1036 | 1014 | 53% | 2013-05-24 | Won |
| 975 | 1163 | 25% | 2011-10-04 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-04-30 | Won |
| 866 | 1011 | 30% | 2010-04-05 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1228 | 43% | 2009-05-03 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1028 | 63% | 2007-11-17 | Won |
| 1269 | 1049 | 78% | 2003-07-25 | Won |
| 1042 | 1039 | 50% | 2001-11-02 | Won |
| 1035 | 1177 | 31% | 2000-06-15 | Lost |
| 1044 | 855 | 75% | 2000-02-04 | Lost |
| 970 | 1036 | 41% | 1999-10-01 | Won |
| 1128 | 1064 | 59% | 1999-03-26 | Won |
| 1083 | 1044 | 56% | 1999-03-18 | Won |
| 1195 | 1115 | 61% | 1999-03-06 | Won |
| 713 | 1152 | 7% | 1999-01-05 | Lost |
| 1072 | 959 | 66% | 1998-11-17 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1049.4 vs 1037.6 has a 51.7% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).