Round One
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 157 (31 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 81
Defender wins (Polish): 76
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1092 | 1017 | 61% | 2024-08-05 | Lost |
| 948 | 1119 | 27% | 2023-01-08 | Won |
| 1102 | 904 | 76% | 2021-11-08 | Lost |
| 877 | 791 | 62% | 2021-10-12 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1119 | 57% | 2021-06-26 | Lost |
| 1220 | 967 | 81% | 2020-09-19 | Lost |
| 1077 | 967 | 65% | 2020-01-13 | Lost |
| 987 | 1085 | 36% | 2019-12-10 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1006 | 59% | 2019-04-30 | Lost |
| 884 | 1028 | 30% | 2015-11-19 | Lost |
| 909 | 1144 | 21% | 2015-09-12 | Won |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2015-08-27 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1028 | 75% | 2015-02-16 | Won |
| 876 | 1060 | 26% | 2014-10-23 | Lost |
| 1060 | 876 | 74% | 2014-10-02 | Won |
| 1033 | 977 | 58% | 2013-05-24 | Won |
| 952 | 1121 | 27% | 2011-10-04 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-04-30 | Won |
| 865 | 1015 | 30% | 2010-04-05 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1233 | 42% | 2009-05-03 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1029 | 63% | 2007-11-17 | Won |
| 1220 | 1049 | 73% | 2003-07-25 | Won |
| 1044 | 1056 | 48% | 2001-11-02 | Won |
| 1037 | 1151 | 34% | 2000-06-15 | Lost |
| 1080 | 855 | 79% | 2000-02-04 | Lost |
| 970 | 1033 | 41% | 1999-10-01 | Won |
| 1110 | 983 | 68% | 1999-03-26 | Won |
| 909 | 1085 | 27% | 1999-03-18 | Won |
| 1197 | 1159 | 55% | 1999-03-06 | Won |
| 753 | 1141 | 10% | 1999-01-05 | Lost |
| 1072 | 926 | 70% | 1998-11-17 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1032.7 vs 1031.7 has a 50.14% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).