Counterattack on the Vistula
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 64 (30 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 25
Defender wins (Russian): 39
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1148 | 1079 | 60% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 973 | 1025 | 43% | 2021-07-17 | Lost |
| 984 | 988 | 49% | 2021-05-03 | Lost |
| 965 | 1121 | 29% | 2020-10-07 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1166 | 30% | 2020-08-21 | Won |
| 1000 | 917 | 62% | 2020-08-17 | Won |
| 990 | 1089 | 36% | 2020-03-24 | Won |
| 1058 | 955 | 64% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1058 | 955 | 64% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 925 | 887 | 55% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 982 | 1019 | 45% | 2018-04-07 | Won |
| 1162 | 1154 | 51% | 2018-02-26 | Lost |
| 1084 | 889 | 75% | 2017-08-05 | Won |
| 1126 | 1116 | 51% | 2017-07-27 | Won |
| 1171 | 1166 | 51% | 2017-07-16 | Lost |
| 1269 | 1124 | 70% | 2017-06-27 | Won |
| 994 | 703 | 84% | 2016-10-25 | Won |
| 897 | 1018 | 33% | 2016-06-18 | Lost |
| 993 | 952 | 56% | 2015-01-10 | Lost |
| 998 | 1126 | 32% | 2015-01-06 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1116 | 51% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 998 | 1126 | 32% | 2014-01-01 | Won |
| 1074 | 963 | 65% | 2012-08-20 | Lost |
| 1050 | 930 | 67% | 2011-06-17 | Won |
| 1051 | 1083 | 45% | 2009-04-07 | Lost |
| 945 | 1119 | 27% | 2007-04-26 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1293 | 16% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 971 | 1293 | 14% | 2006-07-16 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1035 | 61% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
| 1132 | 983 | 70% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1041.7 vs 1046.3 has a 49.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).