Counterattack on the Vistula
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 67 (31 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 35
Defender wins (Russian): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1127 | 1128 | 50% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 1075 | 967 | 65% | 2021-07-17 | Lost |
| 944 | 1089 | 30% | 2021-05-03 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1175 | 34% | 2020-10-07 | Lost |
| 998 | 1226 | 21% | 2020-08-21 | Won |
| 928 | 950 | 47% | 2020-08-17 | Won |
| 1001 | 1172 | 27% | 2020-03-24 | Won |
| 1055 | 948 | 65% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1055 | 948 | 65% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 981 | 1023 | 44% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 970 | 933 | 55% | 2018-04-07 | Won |
| 1163 | 1123 | 56% | 2018-02-26 | Lost |
| 1052 | 839 | 77% | 2017-08-05 | Won |
| 1158 | 984 | 73% | 2017-07-27 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2017-07-16 | Lost |
| 1083 | 958 | 67% | 2017-06-27 | Won |
| 1160 | 879 | 83% | 2016-10-25 | Won |
| 1005 | 1033 | 46% | 2016-06-18 | Lost |
| 934 | 1147 | 23% | 2015-01-10 | Lost |
| 972 | 1158 | 26% | 2015-01-06 | Lost |
| 1158 | 984 | 73% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 972 | 1158 | 26% | 2014-01-01 | Won |
| 1038 | 963 | 61% | 2012-08-20 | Lost |
| 1001 | 1342 | 12% | 2012-04-07 | Lost |
| 1126 | 953 | 73% | 2011-06-17 | Won |
| 1021 | 1083 | 41% | 2009-04-07 | Lost |
| 945 | 1117 | 27% | 2007-04-26 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1434 | 8% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1434 | 16% | 2006-07-16 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1084 | 56% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
| 1091 | 967 | 67% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1049.1 vs 1078.2 has a 45.81% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).