Counterattack on the Vistula
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 65 (30 on the archive and 35 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 25
Defender wins (Russian): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1122 | 1111 | 52% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 1002 | 1041 | 44% | 2021-07-17 | Lost |
| 940 | 1005 | 41% | 2021-05-03 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1176 | 34% | 2020-10-07 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1226 | 26% | 2020-08-21 | Won |
| 931 | 951 | 47% | 2020-08-17 | Won |
| 1001 | 1174 | 27% | 2020-03-24 | Won |
| 1058 | 949 | 65% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1058 | 949 | 65% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1014 | 972 | 56% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 970 | 909 | 59% | 2018-04-07 | Won |
| 1165 | 1127 | 55% | 2018-02-26 | Lost |
| 1118 | 840 | 83% | 2017-08-05 | Won |
| 1158 | 1209 | 43% | 2017-07-27 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2017-07-16 | Lost |
| 1191 | 961 | 79% | 2017-06-27 | Won |
| 972 | 878 | 63% | 2016-10-25 | Won |
| 893 | 1038 | 30% | 2016-06-18 | Lost |
| 877 | 1060 | 26% | 2015-01-10 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1158 | 30% | 2015-01-06 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1209 | 43% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1158 | 30% | 2014-01-01 | Won |
| 1049 | 963 | 62% | 2012-08-20 | Lost |
| 988 | 1066 | 39% | 2011-06-17 | Won |
| 1064 | 1083 | 47% | 2009-04-07 | Lost |
| 945 | 1117 | 27% | 2007-04-26 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1416 | 8% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 996 | 1416 | 8% | 2006-07-16 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1105 | 53% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
| 1090 | 966 | 67% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1039.3 vs 1082 has a 43.9% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).