One Down, Two to Go
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 113 (21 on the archive and 92 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 59
Defender wins (Russian): 53
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1207 | 757 | 93% | 2025-08-25 | Won |
| 986 | 879 | 65% | 2024-09-14 | Won |
| 1090 | 1177 | 38% | 2024-03-01 | Lost |
| 986 | 986 | 50% | 2023-04-07 | Won |
| 1068 | 1019 | 57% | 2020-05-17 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1087 | 42% | 2020-04-03 | Won |
| 1057 | 1108 | 43% | 2019-05-26 | Won |
| 1046 | 997 | 57% | 2016-03-29 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1007 | 78% | 2014-08-25 | Won |
| 1114 | 1051 | 59% | 2013-11-18 | Lost |
| 1086 | 694 | 91% | 2013-09-14 | Won |
| 1101 | 916 | 74% | 2012-03-30 | Won |
| 1228 | 1005 | 78% | 2007-07-07 | Won |
| 1274 | 1021 | 81% | 2006-09-24 | Won |
| 1009 | 1095 | 38% | 2005-07-14 | Lost |
| 969 | 1068 | 36% | 2003-09-06 | Won |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2003-02-04 | Won |
| 613 | 1101 | 6% | 2003-01-12 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1002 | 60% | 2002-05-08 | Lost |
| 1292 | 1249 | 56% | 2000-02-21 | Lost |
| 1054 | 893 | 72% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1076.8 vs 1009.9 has a 59.51% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).