Bread Factory #2
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 376 (60 on the archive and 316 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 195
Defender wins (Russian): 181
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 865 | 865 | 50% | 2024-12-27 | Won |
| 1018 | 875 | 69% | 2024-03-17 | Won |
| 1129 | 1042 | 62% | 2024-02-25 | Won |
| 987 | 1004 | 48% | 2023-08-15 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1010 | 50% | 2023-05-26 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1191 | 45% | 2023-01-08 | Won |
| 1046 | 861 | 74% | 2022-05-27 | Won |
| 861 | 1046 | 26% | 2022-05-26 | Lost |
| 965 | 1116 | 30% | 2022-03-13 | Lost |
| 965 | 1116 | 30% | 2022-03-06 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1158 | 31% | 2021-12-12 | Lost |
| 994 | 999 | 49% | 2021-10-10 | Lost |
| 951 | 1009 | 42% | 2020-11-07 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1094 | 41% | 2020-06-22 | Lost |
| 987 | 1008 | 47% | 2020-06-15 | Won |
| 937 | 1010 | 40% | 2020-04-07 | Lost |
| 918 | 1100 | 26% | 2019-11-26 | Lost |
| 929 | 903 | 54% | 2019-08-18 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1170 | 37% | 2019-05-06 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1100 | 46% | 2019-03-29 | Lost |
| 1110 | 903 | 77% | 2019-02-02 | Won |
| 1110 | 903 | 77% | 2019-02-02 | Won |
| 903 | 949 | 43% | 2018-06-05 | Won |
| 914 | 896 | 53% | 2017-10-22 | Lost |
| 1015 | 949 | 59% | 2017-10-04 | Won |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2017-07-17 | Won |
| 1100 | 1029 | 60% | 2017-06-06 | Won |
| 908 | 1075 | 28% | 2017-05-06 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2017-02-03 | Lost |
| 982 | 1009 | 46% | 2017-01-06 | Lost |
| 896 | 907 | 48% | 2016-07-14 | Lost |
| 1063 | 981 | 62% | 2016-06-14 | Won |
| 1158 | 929 | 79% | 2016-03-17 | Won |
| 1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2015-11-05 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1054 | 64% | 2015-06-26 | Won |
| 1039 | 1012 | 54% | 2014-06-08 | Won |
| 1140 | 697 | 93% | 2013-03-09 | Won |
| 969 | 984 | 48% | 2013-02-02 | Lost |
| 948 | 1008 | 41% | 2013-01-31 | Lost |
| 969 | 983 | 48% | 2013-01-08 | Won |
| 987 | 1132 | 30% | 2012-11-06 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1242 | 25% | 2012-10-26 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1144 | 38% | 2012-10-02 | Lost |
| 1010 | 866 | 70% | 2011-03-11 | Won |
| 1094 | 1031 | 59% | 2009-04-15 | Lost |
| 1043 | 933 | 65% | 2008-08-03 | Won |
| 1228 | 1003 | 79% | 2007-08-27 | Won |
| 1001 | 1053 | 43% | 2006-05-04 | Won |
| 987 | 1181 | 25% | 2005-10-12 | Won |
| 1082 | 995 | 62% | 2005-03-31 | Won |
| 1097 | 1109 | 48% | 2005-03-22 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1097 | 54% | 2005-03-03 | Won |
| 1096 | 1098 | 50% | 2003-02-04 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1035 | 59% | 2002-08-03 | Won |
| 995 | 1002 | 49% | 1998-04-26 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 1997-10-30 | Won |
| 1152 | 981 | 73% | 1996-04-18 | Won |
| 1110 | 1248 | 31% | 1994-11-26 | Lost |
| 952 | 999 | 43% | 1992-12-30 | Lost |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1028.9 vs 1024.3 has a 50.67% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).