Bread Factory #2
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 378 (62 on the archive and 316 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 196
Defender wins (Russian): 182
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 865 | 865 | 50% | 2024-12-27 | Won |
| 1016 | 873 | 69% | 2024-03-17 | Won |
| 1142 | 1027 | 66% | 2024-02-25 | Won |
| 764 | 1022 | 18% | 2023-08-15 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2023-05-26 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1191 | 43% | 2023-01-08 | Won |
| 1045 | 864 | 74% | 2022-05-27 | Won |
| 864 | 1045 | 26% | 2022-05-26 | Lost |
| 968 | 1124 | 29% | 2022-03-13 | Lost |
| 968 | 1124 | 29% | 2022-03-06 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1158 | 30% | 2021-12-12 | Lost |
| 964 | 1020 | 42% | 2021-10-10 | Lost |
| 973 | 928 | 56% | 2020-11-07 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1041 | 50% | 2020-06-22 | Lost |
| 764 | 1010 | 20% | 2020-06-15 | Won |
| 900 | 1011 | 35% | 2020-04-07 | Lost |
| 920 | 1099 | 26% | 2019-11-26 | Lost |
| 1147 | 1152 | 49% | 2019-10-09 | Won |
| 933 | 909 | 53% | 2019-08-18 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1181 | 35% | 2019-05-06 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1104 | 46% | 2019-03-29 | Lost |
| 1107 | 909 | 76% | 2019-02-02 | Won |
| 1107 | 909 | 76% | 2019-02-02 | Won |
| 904 | 949 | 44% | 2018-06-05 | Won |
| 932 | 897 | 55% | 2017-10-22 | Lost |
| 1036 | 964 | 60% | 2017-10-04 | Won |
| 1114 | 1114 | 50% | 2017-07-17 | Won |
| 1104 | 1034 | 60% | 2017-06-06 | Won |
| 908 | 1074 | 28% | 2017-05-06 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2017-02-03 | Lost |
| 983 | 1010 | 46% | 2017-01-06 | Lost |
| 897 | 906 | 49% | 2016-07-14 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1033 | 47% | 2016-06-14 | Won |
| 1158 | 1209 | 43% | 2016-03-17 | Won |
| 1127 | 1114 | 52% | 2015-11-05 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1054 | 64% | 2015-06-26 | Won |
| 1040 | 1012 | 54% | 2014-06-08 | Won |
| 1118 | 694 | 92% | 2013-03-09 | Won |
| 969 | 969 | 50% | 2013-02-02 | Lost |
| 948 | 1008 | 41% | 2013-01-31 | Lost |
| 969 | 983 | 48% | 2013-01-08 | Won |
| 764 | 1143 | 10% | 2012-11-06 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1243 | 25% | 2012-10-26 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1133 | 39% | 2012-10-02 | Lost |
| 1011 | 866 | 70% | 2011-03-11 | Won |
| 1041 | 1044 | 50% | 2009-04-15 | Lost |
| 1039 | 933 | 65% | 2008-08-03 | Won |
| 1228 | 1001 | 79% | 2007-08-27 | Won |
| 1044 | 1054 | 49% | 2006-05-04 | Won |
| 764 | 1158 | 9% | 2005-10-12 | Won |
| 1077 | 1046 | 54% | 2005-03-31 | Won |
| 1095 | 1111 | 48% | 2005-03-22 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1095 | 54% | 2005-03-03 | Won |
| 1096 | 1100 | 49% | 2003-02-04 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1049 | 57% | 2002-08-03 | Won |
| 900 | 1152 | 19% | 2001-12-14 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1002 | 56% | 1998-04-26 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1096 | 51% | 1997-10-30 | Won |
| 1115 | 981 | 68% | 1996-04-18 | Won |
| 1110 | 1189 | 39% | 1994-11-26 | Lost |
| 952 | 1020 | 40% | 1992-12-30 | Lost |
Attacking (30 wins) average ELOs: 1013 vs 1033.4 has a 47.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).