Turned Away
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 268 (42 on the archive and 226 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 119
Defender wins (Russian): 148
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1057 | 988 | 60% | 2024-11-23 | | Lost |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2024-11-20 | | Lost |
| 840 | 1038 | 24% | 2022-09-07 | | Won |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2021-10-07 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1015 | 40% | 2020-06-21 | | Lost |
| 1057 | 966 | 63% | 2020-04-27 | | Lost |
| 1057 | 966 | 63% | 2020-04-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2019-10-31 | | Won |
| 1024 | 1263 | 20% | 2019-03-20 | | Won |
| 1142 | 1000 | 69% | 2018-11-17 | | Lost |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2017-07-10 | | Won |
| 1218 | 1000 | 78% | 2017-06-20 | | Won |
| 1052 | 987 | 59% | 2016-12-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2015-10-29 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1196 | 23% | 2015-03-23 | | Lost |
| 1135 | 1000 | 69% | 2014-12-07 | | Won |
| 1035 | 981 | 58% | 2014-08-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2014-04-01 | | Tied |
| 1233 | 983 | 81% | 2014-02-21 | | Won |
| 1090 | 695 | 91% | 2013-03-30 | | Lost |
| 1010 | 1000 | 51% | 2012-10-01 | | Won |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2012-01-03 | | Won |
| 1039 | 1028 | 52% | 2009-07-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2009-02-25 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2007-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1263 | 1070 | 75% | 2007-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1100 | 36% | 2007-01-21 | | Lost |
| 1046 | 1000 | 57% | 2006-02-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 2006-01-20 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2005-08-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 862 | 69% | 2005-03-05 | | Won |
| 982 | 1000 | 47% | 2005-02-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 2004-07-30 | | Lost |
| 1160 | 1140 | 53% | 2001-10-20 | | Won |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 1999-12-18 | | Lost |
| 1263 | 964 | 85% | 1999-10-08 | | Won |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 1999-05-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 1999-04-26 | | Won |
| 1078 | 1000 | 61% | 1988-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
Attacking (19 wins) average ELOs: 1071.7 vs 1030.3 has a 55.93% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).