Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 142 (15 on the archive and 127 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 78
Defender wins (German): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2025-09-21 | Won |
| 1208 | 1226 | 47% | 2023-07-10 | Won |
| 1031 | 1151 | 33% | 2023-07-01 | Lost |
| 933 | 947 | 48% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 1134 | 1217 | 38% | 2018-06-14 | Won |
| 1059 | 1143 | 38% | 2017-03-08 | Lost |
| 982 | 928 | 58% | 2014-04-01 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1182 | 42% | 2010-09-23 | Lost |
| 1233 | 1015 | 78% | 2009-03-26 | Won |
| 929 | 1015 | 38% | 2009-03-09 | Won |
| 1197 | 1140 | 58% | 2007-07-07 | Lost |
| 1126 | 953 | 73% | 2003-09-19 | Won |
| 934 | 982 | 43% | 2001-09-06 | Won |
| 1028 | 1077 | 43% | 2000-10-01 | Lost |
| 1161 | 1077 | 62% | 1999-12-20 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1082.1 vs 1070.2 has a 51.72% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).