Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 139 (13 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 63
Defender wins (German): 76
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1292 | 1141 | 70% | 2023-07-10 | Won |
| 1047 | 1100 | 42% | 2023-07-01 | Lost |
| 906 | 893 | 52% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 1135 | 1219 | 38% | 2018-06-14 | Won |
| 748 | 1132 | 10% | 2017-03-08 | Lost |
| 982 | 928 | 58% | 2014-04-01 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1142 | 47% | 2010-09-23 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1010 | 78% | 2009-03-26 | Won |
| 932 | 1010 | 39% | 2009-03-09 | Won |
| 950 | 1084 | 32% | 2003-09-19 | Won |
| 934 | 986 | 43% | 2001-09-06 | Won |
| 1014 | 1041 | 46% | 2000-10-01 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1241 | 37% | 1999-12-20 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1033.7 vs 1071.3 has a 44.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).