Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 140 (14 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 77
Defender wins (German): 63
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 944 | 1000 | 42% | 2023-07-10 | Won |
| 1023 | 1000 | 53% | 2023-07-01 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2018-06-14 | Won |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2017-03-08 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2014-04-01 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1062 | 51% | 2010-09-23 | Lost |
| 1130 | 1000 | 68% | 2009-03-26 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2009-03-09 | Won |
| 1000 | 1148 | 30% | 2007-07-07 | Lost |
| 1038 | 961 | 61% | 2003-09-19 | Won |
| 934 | 943 | 49% | 2001-09-06 | Won |
| 980 | 1136 | 29% | 2000-10-01 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1156 | 48% | 1999-12-20 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1019.4 vs 1029 has a 48.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).