Mike Red
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (16 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 38
Defender wins (German): 24
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 1028 | 52% | 2023-03-23 | Won |
| 1054 | 1151 | 36% | 2022-06-29 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1156 | 34% | 2021-06-02 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2021-03-28 | Lost |
| 1051 | 954 | 64% | 2020-01-20 | Won |
| 954 | 1051 | 36% | 2019-12-30 | Lost |
| 858 | 1133 | 17% | 2017-04-22 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1065 | 58% | 2015-07-28 | Lost |
| 998 | 1145 | 30% | 2011-08-14 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1105 | 53% | 2007-08-04 | Lost |
| 1145 | 953 | 75% | 2006-06-07 | Won |
| 1015 | 1152 | 31% | 2005-10-02 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1014 | 57% | 1998-01-08 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1014 | 57% | 1998-01-07 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1028 | 63% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1049.8 vs 1069.1 has a 47.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).