Mayhem in Manila
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 212 (22 on the archive and 190 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 102
Defender wins (Japanese): 110
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-06-21 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1071 | 48% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 1071 | 1056 | 52% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 789 | 1152 | 11% | 2019-04-13 | Won |
| 806 | 1226 | 8% | 2016-05-23 | Won |
| 927 | 892 | 55% | 2016-02-13 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1126 | 52% | 2011-12-05 | Lost |
| 1029 | 991 | 55% | 2011-10-06 | Won |
| 1033 | 1333 | 15% | 2011-06-06 | Won |
| 1065 | 1014 | 57% | 2008-08-25 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1089 | 59% | 2005-10-06 | Won |
| 1135 | 1152 | 48% | 2004-10-09 | Won |
| 914 | 1063 | 30% | 2003-07-30 | Lost |
| 1063 | 981 | 62% | 2003-04-25 | Won |
| 1028 | 996 | 55% | 2002-04-28 | Won |
| 1125 | 1127 | 50% | 2001-10-07 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1152 | 39% | 2000-10-05 | Won |
| 967 | 907 | 59% | 2000-04-09 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1009 | 74% | 1999-07-31 | Won |
| 902 | 1065 | 28% | 1999-07-09 | Won |
| 1103 | 1035 | 60% | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1031.3 vs 1072.6 has a 44.08% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).