The Red Wave
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 27
Attacker wins (Russian): 10
Defender wins (German (SS)): 16
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German (SS)): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1097 | 954 | 69% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 940 | 1037 | 36% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 987 | 1225 | 20% | 2022-03-11 | Lost |
| 1225 | 987 | 80% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1018 | 52% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1068 | 995 | 60% | 2021-02-13 | Lost |
| 948 | 1025 | 39% | 2021-01-25 | Lost |
| 940 | 998 | 42% | 2021-01-25 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1020 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 998 | 1009 | 48% | 2020-01-11 | Lost |
| 888 | 1025 | 31% | 2019-05-15 | Won |
| 873 | 850 | 53% | 2017-06-19 | Won |
| 1225 | 874 | 88% | 2016-12-30 | Won |
| 1173 | 1174 | 50% | 2016-01-24 | Lost |
| 1032 | 984 | 57% | 2015-10-28 | Lost |
| 1080 | 875 | 76% | 2015-06-14 | Lost |
| 992 | 1107 | 34% | 2008-04-04 | Won |
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2004-08-22 | Lost |
| 1051 | 939 | 66% | 2003-10-01 | Lost |
| 1140 | 753 | 90% | 2000-11-29 | Won |
| 1113 | 1233 | 33% | 2000-06-25 | Won |
| 1140 | 753 | 90% | 1999-08-16 | Lost |
| 1190 | 1080 | 65% | 1999-07-01 | Won |
| 986 | 1127 | 31% | 1999-01-06 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1051 | 64% | 1998-10-01 | Won |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 1998-03-18 | Won |
| 1101 | 994 | 65% | 1998-01-14 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1056.4 vs 1007.7 has a 56.96% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).