Urban Guerillas
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 450 (82 on the archive and 368 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian / Partisan): 247
Defender wins (German (SS)): 203
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1041 | 1060 | 47% | 2025-01-24 | Lost |
| 993 | 1060 | 40% | 2025-01-24 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2024-12-21 | Won |
| 1135 | 1243 | 35% | 2024-09-22 | Lost |
| 780 | 1198 | 8% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1055 | 53% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 1151 | 756 | 91% | 2023-07-09 | Lost |
| 1052 | 991 | 59% | 2022-12-28 | Lost |
| 1228 | 949 | 83% | 2022-08-23 | Won |
| 1130 | 980 | 70% | 2021-03-17 | Won |
| 1066 | 1032 | 55% | 2021-01-06 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1152 | 54% | 2020-11-15 | Lost |
| 933 | 1180 | 19% | 2020-11-10 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1033 | 64% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1057 | 66% | 2020-06-16 | Won |
| 980 | 1105 | 33% | 2020-05-19 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1307 | 25% | 2020-02-28 | Lost |
| 1179 | 1136 | 56% | 2020-02-14 | Won |
| 942 | 1217 | 17% | 2019-07-14 | Lost |
| 970 | 904 | 59% | 2018-10-08 | Lost |
| 1038 | 915 | 67% | 2018-09-29 | Won |
| 949 | 904 | 56% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1173 | 63% | 2017-11-08 | Won |
| 1079 | 922 | 71% | 2017-10-10 | Won |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2017-04-04 | Won |
| 828 | 847 | 47% | 2016-02-02 | Won |
| 1055 | 1101 | 43% | 2015-10-08 | Lost |
| 976 | 922 | 58% | 2015-04-12 | Lost |
| 980 | 1130 | 30% | 2015-03-04 | Won |
| 1038 | 881 | 71% | 2014-12-01 | Won |
| 1016 | 998 | 53% | 2014-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1081 | 36% | 2014-09-10 | Lost |
| 1081 | 983 | 64% | 2014-08-20 | Won |
| 1107 | 1117 | 49% | 2014-07-23 | Won |
| 1070 | 1126 | 42% | 2013-10-16 | Won |
| 1143 | 962 | 74% | 2013-05-11 | Won |
| 951 | 958 | 49% | 2013-04-27 | Won |
| 1071 | 894 | 73% | 2012-12-31 | Lost |
| 933 | 1034 | 36% | 2012-09-22 | Won |
| 1105 | 913 | 75% | 2012-08-13 | Won |
| 1042 | 1095 | 42% | 2011-08-08 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1157 | 41% | 2011-08-01 | Won |
| 1095 | 1042 | 58% | 2011-06-01 | Won |
| 1015 | 1089 | 40% | 2011-02-11 | Won |
| 1058 | 1126 | 40% | 2010-04-22 | Lost |
| 906 | 1152 | 20% | 2009-09-13 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1423 | 11% | 2008-09-06 | Lost |
| 980 | 1105 | 33% | 2008-09-04 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1243 | 27% | 2007-08-16 | Won |
| 1068 | 1051 | 52% | 2007-08-10 | Won |
| 1076 | 1095 | 47% | 2006-06-26 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1423 | 17% | 2006-05-13 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1253 | 24% | 2006-04-14 | Won |
| 1253 | 1287 | 45% | 2006-04-13 | Won |
| 969 | 1068 | 36% | 2006-03-06 | Won |
| 1068 | 969 | 64% | 2006-02-26 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1032 | 54% | 2006-02-10 | Won |
| 1123 | 1253 | 32% | 2006-01-10 | Won |
| 1032 | 1046 | 48% | 2005-11-11 | Won |
| 837 | 1140 | 15% | 2005-11-11 | Lost |
| 1095 | 961 | 68% | 2005-08-25 | Won |
| 1066 | 982 | 62% | 2005-05-07 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1095 | 46% | 2005-02-05 | Won |
| 1065 | 997 | 60% | 2005-02-05 | Won |
| 1263 | 1225 | 55% | 2004-04-11 | Won |
| 953 | 1228 | 17% | 2004-03-13 | Won |
| 921 | 927 | 49% | 2004-02-08 | Won |
| 847 | 982 | 31% | 2002-12-05 | Won |
| 1263 | 1292 | 46% | 2001-11-04 | Won |
| 1154 | 1041 | 66% | 2001-04-01 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1198 | 45% | 2000-12-10 | Lost |
| 950 | 993 | 44% | 2000-10-28 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1041 | 60% | 2000-10-28 | Won |
| 1042 | 1105 | 41% | 2000-10-27 | Won |
| 1234 | 1173 | 59% | 2000-02-05 | Won |
| 1065 | 788 | 83% | 1999-12-05 | Lost |
| 1140 | 733 | 91% | 1999-09-29 | Won |
| 902 | 1081 | 26% | 1999-07-02 | Won |
| 1123 | 1153 | 46% | 1999-03-21 | Lost |
| 981 | 1012 | 46% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1032 | 50% | Lost | |
| 1032 | 1018 | 52% | Won |
Attacking (44 wins) average ELOs: 1056.7 vs 1068.6 has a 48.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).