Urban Guerillas
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 461 (92 on the archive and 369 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian / Partisan): 252
Defender wins (German (SS)): 209
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 919 | 1157 | 20% | 2025-12-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2025-01-24 | Lost | |
| 977 | 1029 | 43% | 2025-01-24 | Lost | |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2024-12-21 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1192 | 25% | 2024-09-22 | Lost | |
| 780 | 1157 | 10% | 2024-06-27 | Lost | |
| 1067 | 1056 | 52% | 2023-10-06 | Lost | |
| 1187 | 692 | 95% | 2023-07-09 | Lost | |
| 1077 | 974 | 64% | 2022-12-28 | Lost | |
| 1227 | 946 | 83% | 2022-08-23 | Won | |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2021-03-17 | Won | |
| 1077 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-01-06 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1152 | 29% | 2020-11-15 | Lost | |
| 1156 | 1224 | 40% | 2020-11-10 | Lost | |
| 1119 | 1000 | 66% | 2020-09-08 | Lost | |
| 1172 | 1057 | 66% | 2020-06-16 | Won | |
| 940 | 1167 | 21% | 2020-05-19 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1315 | 14% | 2020-02-28 | Lost | |
| 1178 | 1132 | 57% | 2020-02-14 | Won | |
| 919 | 1218 | 15% | 2019-07-14 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 904 | 63% | 2018-10-08 | Lost | |
| 1061 | 905 | 71% | 2018-09-29 | Won | |
| 948 | 904 | 56% | 2018-09-08 | Lost | |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 2017-11-08 | Won | |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2017-10-10 | Won | |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2017-04-04 | Won | |
| 1000 | 850 | 70% | 2016-02-02 | Won | |
| 1056 | 1143 | 38% | 2015-10-08 | Lost | |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2015-04-12 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2015-03-04 | Won | |
| 1038 | 880 | 71% | 2014-12-01 | Won | |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2014-10-01 | Lost | |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2014-09-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2014-08-20 | Won | |
| 1108 | 1147 | 44% | 2014-07-23 | Won | |
| 1343 | 961 | 90% | 2014-06-21 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2013-10-16 | Won | |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2013-05-11 | Won | |
| 951 | 945 | 51% | 2013-04-27 | Won | |
| 1071 | 1000 | 60% | 2012-12-31 | Lost | |
| 1156 | 1034 | 67% | 2012-09-22 | Won | |
| 1106 | 913 | 75% | 2012-08-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1096 | 37% | 2011-08-08 | Lost | |
| 1126 | 1120 | 51% | 2011-08-01 | Won | |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2011-06-23 | Won | |
| 1096 | 1000 | 63% | 2011-06-01 | Won | |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2011-02-11 | Won | |
| 1090 | 1130 | 44% | 2010-04-22 | Lost | |
| 906 | 1152 | 20% | 2009-09-13 | Lost | |
| 1064 | 1435 | 11% | 2008-09-06 | Lost | |
| 1151 | 941 | 77% | 2008-09-06 | Won | |
| 940 | 1167 | 21% | 2008-09-04 | Lost | |
| 1031 | 1192 | 28% | 2007-08-16 | Won | |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2007-08-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1096 | 37% | 2006-06-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1435 | 8% | 2006-05-13 | Lost | |
| 941 | 1151 | 23% | 2006-05-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2006-05-11 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2006-04-14 | Won | |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2006-04-13 | Won | |
| 970 | 1074 | 35% | 2006-03-06 | Won | |
| 1074 | 970 | 65% | 2006-02-26 | Lost | |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2006-02-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2006-01-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2005-11-11 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2005-11-11 | Lost | |
| 1096 | 961 | 69% | 2005-08-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2005-05-07 | Lost | |
| 1035 | 1096 | 41% | 2005-02-05 | Won | |
| 1035 | 997 | 55% | 2005-02-05 | Won | |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 2004-04-11 | Won | |
| 953 | 1233 | 17% | 2004-03-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 907 | 63% | 2004-02-08 | Won | |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2002-12-05 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2002-04-27 | Lost | |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 2001-11-04 | Won | |
| 1343 | 1009 | 87% | 2001-08-21 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2001-04-01 | Lost | |
| 920 | 1343 | 8% | 2001-03-15 | Lost | |
| 1160 | 1157 | 50% | 2000-12-10 | Lost | |
| 1021 | 1000 | 53% | 2000-10-28 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2000-10-28 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2000-10-27 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1100 | 36% | 2000-02-05 | Won | |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 1999-12-05 | Lost | |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 1999-09-29 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 1999-07-02 | Won | |
| 1343 | 1099 | 80% | 1999-05-21 | Lost | |
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 1999-03-21 | Lost | |
| 981 | 1078 | 36% | 1988-01-01 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | Lost | ||
| 1086 | 1018 | 60% | Won |
Attacking (49 wins) average ELOs: 1055.9 vs 1059.2 has a 49.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).