Urban Guerillas
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 460 (92 on the archive and 368 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian / Partisan): 252
Defender wins (German (SS)): 208
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 918 | 1065 | 30% | 2025-12-15 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1070 | 49% | 2025-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1070 | 37% | 2025-01-24 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2024-12-21 | Won |
| 1135 | 1152 | 48% | 2024-09-22 | Lost |
| 780 | 1065 | 16% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1056 | 53% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 1188 | 698 | 94% | 2023-07-09 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1010 | 53% | 2022-12-28 | Lost |
| 1228 | 949 | 83% | 2022-08-23 | Won |
| 1138 | 999 | 69% | 2021-03-17 | Won |
| 1077 | 1032 | 56% | 2021-01-06 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1152 | 54% | 2020-11-15 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1227 | 40% | 2020-11-10 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1033 | 62% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1057 | 66% | 2020-06-16 | Won |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2020-05-19 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1311 | 25% | 2020-02-28 | Lost |
| 1178 | 1132 | 57% | 2020-02-14 | Won |
| 918 | 1216 | 15% | 2019-07-14 | Lost |
| 970 | 904 | 59% | 2018-10-08 | Lost |
| 1037 | 915 | 67% | 2018-09-29 | Won |
| 948 | 904 | 56% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1174 | 63% | 2017-11-08 | Won |
| 1080 | 924 | 71% | 2017-10-10 | Won |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2017-04-04 | Won |
| 830 | 850 | 47% | 2016-02-02 | Won |
| 1056 | 1144 | 38% | 2015-10-08 | Lost |
| 974 | 922 | 57% | 2015-04-12 | Lost |
| 999 | 1138 | 31% | 2015-03-04 | Won |
| 1038 | 880 | 71% | 2014-12-01 | Won |
| 1017 | 999 | 53% | 2014-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1081 | 36% | 2014-09-10 | Lost |
| 1081 | 983 | 64% | 2014-08-20 | Won |
| 1107 | 1146 | 44% | 2014-07-23 | Won |
| 1344 | 961 | 90% | 2014-06-21 | Won |
| 1070 | 1126 | 42% | 2013-10-16 | Won |
| 1144 | 939 | 76% | 2013-05-11 | Won |
| 951 | 945 | 51% | 2013-04-27 | Won |
| 1070 | 894 | 73% | 2012-12-31 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1034 | 67% | 2012-09-22 | Won |
| 1106 | 913 | 75% | 2012-08-13 | Won |
| 1042 | 1096 | 42% | 2011-08-08 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1136 | 49% | 2011-08-01 | Won |
| 1344 | 1034 | 86% | 2011-06-23 | Won |
| 1096 | 1042 | 58% | 2011-06-01 | Won |
| 1015 | 1089 | 40% | 2011-02-11 | Won |
| 1070 | 1130 | 41% | 2010-04-22 | Lost |
| 906 | 1152 | 20% | 2009-09-13 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1435 | 11% | 2008-09-06 | Lost |
| 1151 | 941 | 77% | 2008-09-06 | Won |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2008-09-04 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1152 | 37% | 2007-08-16 | Won |
| 1060 | 1071 | 48% | 2007-08-10 | Won |
| 1077 | 1096 | 47% | 2006-06-26 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1435 | 17% | 2006-05-13 | Lost |
| 941 | 1151 | 23% | 2006-05-13 | Won |
| 1156 | 1151 | 51% | 2006-05-11 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1219 | 28% | 2006-04-14 | Won |
| 1219 | 1286 | 40% | 2006-04-13 | Won |
| 970 | 1060 | 37% | 2006-03-06 | Won |
| 1060 | 970 | 63% | 2006-02-26 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1032 | 54% | 2006-02-10 | Won |
| 1127 | 1219 | 37% | 2006-01-10 | Won |
| 1032 | 1046 | 48% | 2005-11-11 | Won |
| 837 | 1141 | 15% | 2005-11-11 | Lost |
| 1096 | 961 | 69% | 2005-08-25 | Won |
| 1066 | 982 | 62% | 2005-05-07 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1096 | 40% | 2005-02-05 | Won |
| 1029 | 997 | 55% | 2005-02-05 | Won |
| 1263 | 1226 | 55% | 2004-04-11 | Won |
| 953 | 1233 | 17% | 2004-03-13 | Won |
| 921 | 907 | 52% | 2004-02-08 | Won |
| 847 | 982 | 31% | 2002-12-05 | Won |
| 1153 | 1344 | 25% | 2002-04-27 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1292 | 46% | 2001-11-04 | Won |
| 1344 | 1006 | 87% | 2001-08-21 | Won |
| 1155 | 1031 | 67% | 2001-04-01 | Lost |
| 920 | 1344 | 8% | 2001-03-15 | Lost |
| 1161 | 1065 | 63% | 2000-12-10 | Lost |
| 1011 | 992 | 53% | 2000-10-28 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1031 | 50% | 2000-10-28 | Won |
| 1040 | 1167 | 32% | 2000-10-27 | Won |
| 1119 | 1119 | 50% | 2000-02-05 | Won |
| 1029 | 788 | 80% | 1999-12-05 | Lost |
| 1141 | 777 | 89% | 1999-09-29 | Won |
| 902 | 1080 | 26% | 1999-07-02 | Won |
| 1344 | 1099 | 80% | 1999-05-21 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1153 | 45% | 1999-03-21 | Lost |
| 981 | 1077 | 37% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1078 | 50% | Lost | |
| 1078 | 1017 | 59% | Won |
Attacking (49 wins) average ELOs: 1070.6 vs 1071.5 has a 49.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).