The Guns of Naro
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (American): 11
Defender wins (Italian): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1216 | 1182 | 55% | 2024-02-22 | Won |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2024-02-09 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1008 | 54% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 969 | 948 | 53% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 958 | 958 | 50% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1111 | 1215 | 35% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 1000 | 996 | 51% | 2021-02-24 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost |
| 1067 | 958 | 65% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 986 | 1333 | 12% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 1143 | 983 | 72% | 2015-04-18 | Won |
| 1060 | 919 | 69% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
| 1144 | 941 | 76% | 2014-07-06 | Won |
| 991 | 949 | 56% | 2013-12-28 | Tied |
| 999 | 1079 | 39% | 2012-04-16 | Won |
| 1089 | 1203 | 34% | 2003-08-08 | Won |
| 713 | 1151 | 7% | 2000-04-26 | Won |
| 920 | 1043 | 33% | 2000-04-07 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1090 | 38% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1067 | 50% | 1999-05-25 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1062 | 51% | 1999-04-14 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1040.7 vs 1066.7 has a 46.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).