The Guns of Naro
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 18
Attacker wins (American): 9
Defender wins (Italian): 8
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1282 | 1281 | 50% | 2024-02-22 | Won |
| 1224 | 1224 | 50% | 2024-02-09 | Lost |
| 1063 | 981 | 62% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 1032 | 943 | 63% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 896 | 928 | 45% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1092 | 1085 | 51% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 986 | 1025 | 44% | 2021-02-24 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost |
| 1066 | 958 | 65% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 986 | 1316 | 13% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 1141 | 983 | 71% | 2015-04-18 | Won |
| 1121 | 893 | 79% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
| 1144 | 944 | 76% | 2014-07-06 | Won |
| 991 | 949 | 56% | 2013-12-28 | Tied |
| 1000 | 1038 | 45% | 2012-04-16 | Won |
| 1026 | 1014 | 52% | 2003-08-08 | Won |
| 920 | 945 | 46% | 2000-04-07 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1121 | 35% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1059.6 vs 1039.8 has a 52.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).