The Guns of Naro
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 107 (24 on the archive and 83 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 61
Defender wins (Italian): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1004 | 1000 | 51% | 2025-12-06 | | Won |
| 1241 | 1000 | 80% | 2024-02-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1228 | 21% | 2024-02-09 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 980 | 59% | 2022-12-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 947 | 58% | 2022-07-10 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2022-01-17 | | Won |
| 1119 | 1000 | 66% | 2021-03-14 | | Won |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2021-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2019-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1071 | 959 | 66% | 2018-06-16 | | Won |
| 986 | 1219 | 21% | 2017-05-05 | | Lost |
| 1181 | 983 | 76% | 2015-04-18 | | Won |
| 1070 | 937 | 68% | 2014-10-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2014-07-06 | | Won |
| 991 | 948 | 56% | 2013-12-28 | | Tied |
| 999 | 1146 | 30% | 2012-04-16 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2005-06-25 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2003-08-08 | | Won |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2000-04-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2000-04-07 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1009 | 87% | 2000-02-24 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2000-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1087 | 48% | 1999-05-25 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 1999-04-14 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1064.6 vs 1024.1 has a 55.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).