The Guns of Naro
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 22
Attacker wins (American): 12
Defender wins (Italian): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 994 | 974 | 53% | 2025-12-06 | Won |
| 1170 | 1269 | 36% | 2024-02-22 | Won |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2024-02-09 | Lost |
| 1046 | 997 | 57% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 973 | 948 | 54% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 967 | 967 | 50% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1134 | 1223 | 37% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 1056 | 976 | 61% | 2021-02-24 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost |
| 1071 | 959 | 66% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 985 | 1274 | 16% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 1176 | 983 | 75% | 2015-04-18 | Won |
| 1086 | 918 | 72% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
| 1143 | 962 | 74% | 2014-07-06 | Won |
| 991 | 949 | 56% | 2013-12-28 | Tied |
| 999 | 1098 | 36% | 2012-04-16 | Won |
| 1081 | 1189 | 35% | 2003-08-08 | Won |
| 733 | 1140 | 9% | 2000-04-26 | Won |
| 924 | 971 | 43% | 2000-04-07 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1096 | 44% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1086 | 47% | 1999-05-25 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1062 | 51% | 1999-04-14 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1047 vs 1061.7 has a 47.89% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).