Bad Luck
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46
Attacker wins (German): 21
Defender wins (American): 25
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1026 | 1174 | 30% | 2025-01-08 | Lost |
| 1002 | 961 | 56% | 2024-11-25 | Lost |
| 1108 | 984 | 67% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 850 | 989 | 31% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 988 | 988 | 50% | 2022-11-28 | Won |
| 1252 | 1306 | 42% | 2021-07-25 | Lost |
| 780 | 1029 | 19% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1226 | 999 | 79% | 2020-09-08 | Won |
| 1064 | 950 | 66% | 2020-08-28 | Won |
| 982 | 1131 | 30% | 2019-05-08 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1015 | 52% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1133 | 1052 | 61% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1047 | 1216 | 27% | 2018-02-11 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1216 | 27% | 2018-02-11 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1198 | 53% | 2014-01-18 | Won |
| 1125 | 1092 | 55% | 2012-02-25 | Won |
| 1121 | 1096 | 54% | 2011-11-11 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1169 | 37% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 952 | 1121 | 27% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1040 | 941 | 64% | 2010-03-13 | Won |
| 1105 | 1016 | 63% | 2009-08-23 | Won |
| 1085 | 1137 | 43% | 2009-04-14 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1061 | 63% | 2008-03-01 | Won |
| 1022 | 1036 | 48% | 2008-01-27 | Won |
| 1160 | 1122 | 55% | 2008-01-27 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1234 | 38% | 2007-09-07 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1150 | 41% | 2007-09-07 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1430 | 17% | 2007-08-07 | Lost |
| 943 | 992 | 43% | 2006-10-14 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1174 | 50% | 2006-06-23 | Lost |
| 1061 | 982 | 61% | 2006-06-03 | Won |
| 1219 | 1343 | 33% | 2006-04-02 | Won |
| 987 | 1174 | 25% | 2005-10-23 | Won |
| 834 | 1162 | 13% | 2003-03-07 | Won |
| 1060 | 925 | 69% | 2002-05-03 | Won |
| 1343 | 978 | 89% | 2002-04-27 | Won |
| 954 | 1343 | 10% | 2002-02-02 | Lost |
| 1343 | 1022 | 86% | 2002-01-31 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1026 | 49% | 2002-01-01 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1100 | 39% | 2001-12-08 | Won |
| 727 | 1140 | 8% | 2001-08-10 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2001-08-08 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2001-08-07 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1007 | 54% | | Won |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Lost |
| 1036 | 963 | 60% | | Won |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1064.2 vs 1095.1 has a 45.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).