ASL Scenario Archive

Bad Luck

Games with no balance used/recorded: 40

Attacker wins (German): 18

Defender wins (American): 22

Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.

Attacker ELO	Defender ELO	Expected chance to win	Date	Outcome
955	1169	23%	2025-01-08	Lost
997	984	52%	2024-11-25	Lost
1108	980	68%	2023-02-27	Lost
850	989	31%	2023-02-27	Lost
950	950	50%	2022-11-28	Won
1253	1307	42%	2021-07-25	Lost
780	1029	19%	2020-10-28	Lost
1226	1013	77%	2020-09-08	Won
1138	951	75%	2020-08-28	Won
1077	1113	45%	2019-05-08	Lost
1011	1003	51%	2018-03-03	Won
1133	1072	59%	2018-03-03	Won
994	1216	22%	2018-02-11	Lost
994	1216	22%	2018-02-11	Lost
1220	1197	53%	2014-01-18	Won
1125	1093	55%	2012-02-25	Won
1090	1104	48%	2011-11-11	Lost
1073	1169	37%	2011-09-15	Won
980	1090	35%	2011-08-01	Lost
1073	918	71%	2010-03-13	Won
1105	1016	63%	2009-08-23	Won
1083	1136	42%	2009-04-14	Lost
1022	1034	48%	2008-01-27	Won
1174	1130	56%	2008-01-27	Lost
1113	1340	21%	2007-09-07	Lost
1117	1419	15%	2007-08-07	Lost
989	993	49%	2006-10-14	Lost
1175	1169	51%	2006-06-23	Lost
1038	1077	44%	2006-06-03	Won
985	1169	26%	2005-10-23	Won
831	1194	11%	2003-03-07	Won
1068	914	71%	2002-05-03	Won
1037	1020	52%	2002-01-01	Lost
1074	1100	46%	2001-12-08	Won
731	1138	9%	2001-08-10	Lost
1095	1100	49%	2001-08-08	Lost
1100	1095	51%	2001-08-07	Lost
1122	1007	66%		Won
1095	1122	46%		Lost
1122	973	70%		Won

Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1052.6 vs 1092.7 has a 44.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).