ASL Scenario Archive

Bad Luck

Games with no balance used/recorded: 40

Attacker wins (German): 18

Defender wins (American): 22

Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.

Attacker ELO	Defender ELO	Expected chance to win	Date	Outcome
972	1141	27%	2025-01-08	Lost
954	1043	37%	2024-11-25	Lost
1108	997	65%	2023-02-27	Lost
850	989	31%	2023-02-27	Lost
951	951	50%	2022-11-28	Won
1253	1320	40%	2021-07-25	Lost
762	1029	18%	2020-10-28	Lost
1226	1043	74%	2020-09-08	Won
1198	951	81%	2020-08-28	Won
991	1131	31%	2019-05-08	Lost
996	907	63%	2018-03-03	Won
1133	1091	56%	2018-03-03	Won
1009	1215	23%	2018-02-11	Lost
1009	1215	23%	2018-02-11	Lost
1220	1197	53%	2014-01-18	Won
1126	1094	55%	2012-02-25	Won
1162	1135	54%	2011-11-11	Lost
1094	941	71%	2011-09-15	Won
976	1162	26%	2011-08-01	Lost
1070	922	70%	2010-03-13	Won
1105	1016	63%	2009-08-23	Won
1075	1136	41%	2009-04-14	Lost
1022	1035	48%	2008-01-27	Won
1127	1130	50%	2008-01-27	Lost
1113	1333	22%	2007-09-07	Lost
1117	1416	15%	2007-08-07	Lost
947	994	43%	2006-10-14	Lost
1175	1141	55%	2006-06-23	Lost
999	991	51%	2006-06-03	Won
985	1141	29%	2005-10-23	Won
830	1189	11%	2003-03-07	Won
1063	914	70%	2002-05-03	Won
1028	1020	51%	2002-01-01	Lost
1123	1100	53%	2001-12-08	Won
713	1152	7%	2001-08-10	Lost
1095	1100	49%	2001-08-08	Lost
1100	1095	51%	2001-08-07	Lost
1103	1007	63%		Won
1089	1103	48%		Lost
1103	997	65%		Won

Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1049.3 vs 1087.1 has a 44.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).