Bad Luck
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37
Attacker wins (German): 16
Defender wins (American): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 971 | 1189 | 22% | 2025-01-08 | Lost |
| 940 | 1053 | 34% | 2024-11-25 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1009 | 64% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 852 | 991 | 31% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 906 | 893 | 52% | 2022-11-28 | Won |
| 1245 | 1307 | 41% | 2021-07-25 | Lost |
| 768 | 1029 | 18% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1223 | 970 | 81% | 2020-09-08 | Won |
| 1199 | 951 | 81% | 2020-08-28 | Won |
| 748 | 1132 | 10% | 2019-05-08 | Lost |
| 995 | 897 | 64% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1132 | 1086 | 57% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 993 | 1209 | 22% | 2018-02-11 | Lost |
| 993 | 1209 | 22% | 2018-02-11 | Lost |
| 1209 | 1195 | 52% | 2014-01-18 | Won |
| 1125 | 1093 | 55% | 2012-02-25 | Won |
| 1141 | 1109 | 55% | 2011-11-11 | Lost |
| 1125 | 940 | 74% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 994 | 1141 | 30% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1125 | 876 | 81% | 2010-03-13 | Won |
| 1103 | 1015 | 62% | 2009-08-23 | Won |
| 1073 | 1134 | 41% | 2009-04-14 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1029 | 48% | 2008-01-27 | Won |
| 1122 | 1147 | 46% | 2008-01-27 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1310 | 24% | 2007-09-07 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1412 | 15% | 2007-08-07 | Lost |
| 1017 | 994 | 53% | 2006-10-14 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1189 | 43% | 2006-06-23 | Lost |
| 984 | 1189 | 24% | 2005-10-23 | Won |
| 847 | 1241 | 9% | 2003-03-07 | Won |
| 1041 | 1020 | 53% | 2002-01-01 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1099 | 54% | 2001-12-08 | Won |
| 1096 | 1098 | 50% | 2001-08-08 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 2001-08-07 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1003 | 68% | | Won |
| 1131 | 1131 | 50% | | Lost |
| 1131 | 963 | 72% | | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1056.2 vs 1090.5 has a 45.08% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).