Bad Luck
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 40
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (American): 22
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 962 | 1217 | 19% | 2025-01-08 | Lost |
| 952 | 1040 | 38% | 2024-11-25 | Lost |
| 1108 | 995 | 66% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 850 | 989 | 31% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 940 | 940 | 50% | 2022-11-28 | Won |
| 1253 | 1292 | 44% | 2021-07-25 | Lost |
| 783 | 1029 | 20% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1015 | 77% | 2020-09-08 | Won |
| 1183 | 951 | 79% | 2020-08-28 | Won |
| 1032 | 1118 | 38% | 2019-05-08 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1032 | 47% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1133 | 1088 | 56% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1009 | 1216 | 23% | 2018-02-11 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1216 | 23% | 2018-02-11 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1197 | 53% | 2014-01-18 | Won |
| 1126 | 1094 | 55% | 2012-02-25 | Won |
| 1100 | 1121 | 47% | 2011-11-11 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1168 | 40% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 968 | 1100 | 32% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1060 | 919 | 69% | 2010-03-13 | Won |
| 1105 | 1016 | 63% | 2009-08-23 | Won |
| 1084 | 1136 | 43% | 2009-04-14 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1035 | 48% | 2008-01-27 | Won |
| 1163 | 1130 | 55% | 2008-01-27 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1333 | 22% | 2007-09-07 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1419 | 15% | 2007-08-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 994 | 51% | 2006-10-14 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1217 | 44% | 2006-06-23 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1032 | 52% | 2006-06-03 | Won |
| 985 | 1217 | 21% | 2005-10-23 | Won |
| 831 | 1203 | 11% | 2003-03-07 | Won |
| 1068 | 914 | 71% | 2002-05-03 | Won |
| 1002 | 1020 | 47% | 2002-01-01 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1100 | 53% | 2001-12-08 | Won |
| 713 | 1152 | 7% | 2001-08-10 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1100 | 49% | 2001-08-08 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1095 | 51% | 2001-08-07 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1007 | 65% | | Won |
| 1091 | 1118 | 46% | | Lost |
| 1118 | 998 | 67% | | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1052.2 vs 1099.3 has a 43.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).