Bad Luck
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37
Attacker wins (German): 16
Defender wins (American): 21
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 966 | 1149 | 26% | 2025-01-08 | Lost |
| 941 | 1053 | 34% | 2024-11-25 | Lost |
| 850 | 995 | 30% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1043 | 59% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 927 | 928 | 50% | 2022-11-28 | Won |
| 1245 | 1307 | 41% | 2021-07-25 | Lost |
| 788 | 1029 | 20% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1223 | 938 | 84% | 2020-09-08 | Won |
| 1195 | 951 | 80% | 2020-08-28 | Won |
| 865 | 1195 | 13% | 2019-05-08 | Lost |
| 1015 | 945 | 60% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1132 | 1061 | 60% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 923 | 1216 | 16% | 2018-02-11 | Lost |
| 923 | 1216 | 16% | 2018-02-11 | Lost |
| 1208 | 1195 | 52% | 2014-01-18 | Won |
| 1125 | 1093 | 55% | 2012-02-25 | Won |
| 1136 | 1109 | 54% | 2011-11-11 | Lost |
| 1115 | 941 | 73% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 1004 | 1136 | 32% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1079 | 921 | 71% | 2010-03-13 | Won |
| 1103 | 1015 | 62% | 2009-08-23 | Won |
| 1020 | 1134 | 34% | 2009-04-14 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1029 | 48% | 2008-01-27 | Won |
| 1161 | 1147 | 52% | 2008-01-27 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1302 | 25% | 2007-09-07 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1405 | 16% | 2007-08-07 | Lost |
| 1009 | 994 | 52% | 2006-10-14 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1149 | 45% | 2006-06-23 | Lost |
| 984 | 1149 | 28% | 2005-10-23 | Won |
| 847 | 1205 | 11% | 2003-03-07 | Won |
| 1024 | 1020 | 51% | 2002-01-01 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1099 | 42% | 2001-12-08 | Won |
| 1096 | 1098 | 50% | 2001-08-08 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 2001-08-07 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1003 | 64% | | Won |
| 1166 | 1105 | 59% | | Lost |
| 1105 | 989 | 66% | | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1050.9 vs 1090.8 has a 44.28% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).