The Sooner The Better
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 41 (9 on the archive and 32 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 17
Defender wins (Commonwealth): 23
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 909 | 909 | 50% | 2026-04-05 | Won |
| 948 | 956 | 49% | 2020-06-22 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1049 | 49% | 2020-01-13 | Won |
| 1040 | 1040 | 50% | 2019-11-16 | Tied |
| 1034 | 885 | 70% | 2016-10-30 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1129 | 42% | 2015-10-07 | Lost |
| 1253 | 1019 | 79% | 2011-09-08 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1092 | 54% | 2006-06-07 | Won |
| 1156 | 1113 | 56% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1063.7 vs 1021.3 has a 56.06% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).