The Road to Wiltz
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 70 (9 on the archive and 61 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 24
Defender wins (American): 46
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1016 | 48% | 2022-05-05 | | Lost |
| 992 | 1134 | 31% | 2021-02-24 | | Won |
| 992 | 1134 | 31% | 2021-02-23 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2015-10-25 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 889 | 93% | 2011-06-23 | | Won |
| 1092 | 827 | 82% | 2006-05-14 | | Won |
| 832 | 1152 | 14% | 2003-09-21 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1074 | 35% | 2003-04-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2002-03-10 | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1034.3 vs 1031.3 has a 50.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).