Ad Hoc at Chef-Du-Pont
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 114 (56 on the archive and 58 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 46
Defender wins (German): 67
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1008 | 49% | 2026-06-19 | | Lost |
| 932 | 1069 | 31% | 2026-04-05 | | Lost |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2026-03-25 | | Won |
| 1069 | 932 | 69% | 2026-03-15 | | Lost |
| 1139 | 1000 | 69% | 2025-09-21 | | Lost |
| 992 | 1015 | 47% | 2024-09-24 | | Lost |
| 1028 | 1156 | 32% | 2024-09-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 987 | 52% | 2024-08-19 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2023-09-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1291 | 16% | 2023-06-22 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2022-04-15 | | Won |
| 1205 | 1000 | 76% | 2022-04-10 | | Lost |
| 1139 | 1000 | 69% | 2022-03-05 | | Won |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-03-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1024 | 47% | 2021-03-14 | | Lost |
| 944 | 1000 | 42% | 2021-01-02 | | Won |
| 964 | 1140 | 27% | 2020-12-08 | | Lost |
| 1006 | 1092 | 38% | 2020-12-06 | | Lost |
| 1012 | 1000 | 52% | 2020-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1092 | 42% | 2020-11-13 | | Lost |
| 1143 | 1004 | 69% | 2020-11-12 | | Won |
| 1006 | 890 | 66% | 2020-11-11 | | Won |
| 1006 | 890 | 66% | 2020-11-11 | | Won |
| 1143 | 1000 | 69% | 2020-11-08 | | Won |
| 1092 | 1035 | 58% | 2020-11-07 | | Won |
| 960 | 1152 | 25% | 2020-10-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2020-08-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1102 | 36% | 2020-05-08 | | Lost |
| 1123 | 1000 | 67% | 2020-04-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2020-03-07 | | Lost |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2020-01-30 | | Won |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2020-01-30 | | Won |
| 1172 | 1000 | 73% | 2019-10-30 | | Won |
| 1135 | 1000 | 69% | 2017-05-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1142 | 31% | 2017-05-18 | | Won |
| 894 | 1099 | 24% | 2016-12-31 | | Lost |
| 886 | 1000 | 34% | 2016-07-26 | | Tied |
| 980 | 845 | 69% | 2015-11-08 | | Won |
| 980 | 845 | 69% | 2015-11-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1431 | 8% | 2015-11-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2015-07-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2015-07-02 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2015-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2015-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1102 | 36% | 2015-01-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1038 | 45% | 2014-05-22 | | Lost |
| 1070 | 1000 | 60% | 2014-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2014-02-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1220 | 22% | 2013-12-01 | | Lost |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2011-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2009-11-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2008-11-14 | | Won |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2007-03-01 | | Won |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2007-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2006-08-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 832 | 72% | 2006-02-05 | | Lost |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1027 vs 1033.2 has a 49.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).