Ad Hoc at Chef-Du-Pont
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 109 (52 on the archive and 57 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 56
Defender wins (German): 52
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1139 | 1139 | 50% | 2025-09-21 | Lost |
| 992 | 1015 | 47% | 2024-09-24 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1082 | 42% | 2024-09-21 | Won |
| 991 | 970 | 53% | 2024-08-19 | Won |
| 1036 | 1033 | 50% | 2023-09-28 | Lost |
| 979 | 1290 | 14% | 2023-06-22 | Lost |
| 1056 | 996 | 59% | 2022-04-15 | Won |
| 1235 | 991 | 80% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1139 | 50% | 2022-03-05 | Won |
| 1002 | 994 | 51% | 2021-03-28 | Won |
| 1027 | 1024 | 50% | 2021-03-14 | Lost |
| 967 | 1076 | 35% | 2021-01-02 | Won |
| 964 | 1140 | 27% | 2020-12-08 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1142 | 31% | 2020-12-06 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1080 | 40% | 2020-11-14 | Lost |
| 969 | 1142 | 27% | 2020-11-13 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1004 | 69% | 2020-11-12 | Won |
| 1006 | 879 | 68% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 1006 | 879 | 68% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 1144 | 1115 | 54% | 2020-11-08 | Won |
| 1142 | 969 | 73% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
| 960 | 1152 | 25% | 2020-10-30 | Lost |
| 1079 | 989 | 63% | 2020-08-20 | Won |
| 1236 | 1102 | 68% | 2020-05-08 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1254 | 34% | 2020-04-03 | Won |
| 1174 | 1173 | 50% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 964 | 976 | 48% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 964 | 976 | 48% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 1173 | 1109 | 59% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1093 | 1093 | 50% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1101 | 1142 | 44% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 894 | 1102 | 23% | 2016-12-31 | Lost |
| 878 | 991 | 34% | 2016-07-26 | Tied |
| 987 | 853 | 68% | 2015-11-08 | Won |
| 987 | 853 | 68% | 2015-11-07 | Won |
| 1171 | 1431 | 18% | 2015-11-04 | Lost |
| 991 | 1173 | 26% | 2015-07-10 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1173 | 40% | 2015-07-02 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2015-03-11 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2015-03-11 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1201 | 45% | 2015-01-03 | Lost |
| 962 | 1038 | 39% | 2014-05-22 | Lost |
| 1062 | 972 | 63% | 2014-03-10 | Lost |
| 1064 | 981 | 62% | 2014-02-06 | Lost |
| 1212 | 1220 | 49% | 2013-12-01 | Lost |
| 1028 | 991 | 55% | 2011-10-10 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1135 | 63% | 2009-11-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 951 | 59% | 2008-11-14 | Won |
| 1007 | 870 | 69% | 2007-03-01 | Won |
| 1007 | 937 | 60% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 1108 | 984 | 67% | 2006-08-12 | Lost |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-02-05 | Lost |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1049.6 vs 1053.3 has a 49.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).