Ad Hoc at Chef-Du-Pont
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 108 (51 on the archive and 57 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 56
Defender wins (German): 51
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 992 | 1015 | 47% | 2024-09-24 | Lost |
| 1027 | 972 | 58% | 2024-09-21 | Won |
| 891 | 990 | 36% | 2024-08-19 | Won |
| 1036 | 1034 | 50% | 2023-09-28 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1277 | 42% | 2023-06-22 | Lost |
| 1056 | 996 | 59% | 2022-04-15 | Won |
| 1177 | 891 | 84% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2022-03-05 | Won |
| 1002 | 1009 | 49% | 2021-03-28 | Won |
| 1030 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-03-14 | Lost |
| 940 | 1076 | 31% | 2021-01-02 | Won |
| 964 | 1141 | 27% | 2020-12-08 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1142 | 31% | 2020-12-06 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1001 | 52% | 2020-11-14 | Lost |
| 969 | 1142 | 27% | 2020-11-13 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1023 | 67% | 2020-11-12 | Won |
| 1006 | 892 | 66% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 1006 | 892 | 66% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 1144 | 1115 | 54% | 2020-11-08 | Won |
| 1142 | 969 | 73% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
| 960 | 1151 | 25% | 2020-10-30 | Lost |
| 1078 | 988 | 63% | 2020-08-20 | Won |
| 1235 | 1110 | 67% | 2020-05-08 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1254 | 32% | 2020-04-03 | Won |
| 1114 | 1114 | 50% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 954 | 1043 | 37% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 954 | 1043 | 37% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 1174 | 1109 | 59% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1094 | 1094 | 50% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1101 | 1142 | 44% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 893 | 1191 | 15% | 2016-12-31 | Lost |
| 878 | 891 | 48% | 2016-07-26 | Tied |
| 986 | 851 | 69% | 2015-11-08 | Won |
| 986 | 851 | 69% | 2015-11-07 | Won |
| 1171 | 1431 | 18% | 2015-11-04 | Lost |
| 891 | 1114 | 22% | 2015-07-10 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1114 | 48% | 2015-07-02 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2015-03-11 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2015-03-11 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1200 | 43% | 2015-01-03 | Lost |
| 961 | 1037 | 39% | 2014-05-22 | Lost |
| 1100 | 972 | 68% | 2014-03-10 | Lost |
| 1064 | 981 | 62% | 2014-02-06 | Lost |
| 1212 | 1220 | 49% | 2013-12-01 | Lost |
| 1022 | 891 | 68% | 2011-10-10 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1135 | 63% | 2009-11-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 951 | 59% | 2008-11-14 | Won |
| 987 | 871 | 66% | 2007-03-01 | Won |
| 987 | 937 | 57% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 1096 | 984 | 66% | 2006-08-12 | Lost |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-02-05 | Lost |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1044.7 vs 1044.6 has a 50.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).